Ligue 1 2026-2027: Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction - 1 Nov 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Marseille

Home Team
36%
VS

Toulouse

Away Team
35%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 63%
No Goal: 37%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 26.6
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Marseille

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Marseille
Chance creation (xG data) +8.7 Toulouse
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.0 Marseille
Defense +2.5 Toulouse
Attack +0.8 Toulouse

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Marseille. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Marseille defense +3.6 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Toulouse defense +2.1 Under
Marseille attack & chance creation +2.1 Over
Form & results +0.9 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 9 6 2 1 21 10 11 20
2 Rennes 9 5 1 3 20 19 1 16
3 Lille 8 4 3 1 11 6 5 15
4 Monaco 8 4 3 1 11 7 4 15
5 Lyon 8 4 2 2 13 7 6 14
6 Paris FC 8 4 2 2 13 9 4 14
7 Nice 9 4 2 3 13 12 1 14
8 Lens 8 4 1 3 16 12 4 13
9 Marseille 8 4 0 4 18 13 5 12
10 Lorient 8 3 3 2 7 6 1 12
11 Toulouse 8 2 4 2 12 11 1 10
12 Auxerre 8 3 1 4 12 18 -6 10
13 Brest 8 2 3 3 14 12 2 9
14 Angers 8 2 2 4 9 15 -6 8
15 Le Mans 8 1 4 3 11 16 -5 7
16 Strasbourg 8 2 1 5 12 18 -6 7
17 Troyes 8 1 2 5 5 16 -11 5
18 Le Havre 9 0 2 7 9 20 -11 2

Recent Trends

Marseille W W W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Troyes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)

Toulouse D W D W D

  • Last Match: D vs Troyes (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Le Mans (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Marseille

xG (avg) 1.94
xGA (avg) 2.74
Clean Sheets 1

Toulouse

xG (avg) 1.53
xGA (avg) 1.54
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Marseille are marginal favourites, with a 36% chance of winning, just ahead of Toulouse at 35%, while a draw is priced at 28%. The lean is to over 2.5 goals, at 55%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage gives Marseille a narrow lift, but Toulouse’s chance creation and defensive numbers pull the contest close. Marseille have won three straight, most recently 4-3 against Le Havre, after a 5-2 win at Angers and a 2-0 victory at Troyes. Those results point to an attack in form, though the latest win also showed how open their matches can become. Marseille have averaged 2.8 goals at home, above their 1.9 expected goals, suggesting they have scored more than their chances alone would predict. Toulouse drew 0-0 with Troyes most recently, following a 3-0 away win at Le Mans and a 2-2 draw at Monaco. Their ability to create chances, alongside Marseille’s home defensive vulnerability, gives the visitors a clear route to upset the slight home lean.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Marseille
Goals in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the slight preference, with a 55% probability. Marseille’s defensive record is the strongest reason for that lean, while their recent home games have also featured high scoring.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Marseille
Corners in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.8 corners in total. The latest matches for Marseille and Toulouse produced seven and six corners respectively, so the estimate points to a moderate set-piece count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Marseille
Shots in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 27 shots. Marseille’s latest match against Le Havre featured 33 shots between the teams, although Toulouse’s recent 0-0 with Troyes had only 15.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Marseille wins by X goals. Negative = Toulouse wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Marseille vs Toulouse with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Marseille vs Toulouse
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.2 goals in Marseille’s favour. That small gap reflects a near-even contest rather than a strong home advantage.

Final Prediction

Toulouse’s chance creation is the clearest threat to the forecast. If they turn that into goals against a Marseille side that has conceded freely at home, the narrow home lean could quickly disappear.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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