Ligue 1 2025-2026: Monaco vs Lorient Prediction

Monaco

Home Team
52%
VS

Lorient

Away Team
24%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 17 13 1 3 31 13 18 40
2 Paris SG 17 12 3 2 37 15 22 39
3 Marseille 17 10 2 5 36 17 19 32
4 Lille 17 10 2 5 33 22 11 32
5 Lyon 17 9 3 5 25 17 8 30
6 Rennes 17 8 6 3 29 24 5 30
7 Strasbourg 17 7 3 7 26 21 5 24
8 Toulouse 17 6 5 6 24 22 2 23
9 Monaco 17 7 2 8 27 30 -3 23
10 Angers 17 6 4 7 18 20 -2 22
11 Brest 17 6 4 7 23 27 -4 22
12 Lorient 17 4 7 6 20 29 -9 19
13 Le Havre 17 4 6 7 15 23 -8 18
14 Nice 17 5 3 9 20 30 -10 18
15 Paris FC 17 4 4 9 22 31 -9 16
16 Nantes 17 3 5 9 16 28 -12 14
17 Auxerre 17 3 3 11 14 27 -13 12
18 Metz 17 3 3 11 18 38 -20 12

Recent Trends

Monaco ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 4)

Lorient ⚪ ⚪ ✅ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Monaco

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.69
# Clean Sheets: 1

Lorient

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.12
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.64
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Monaco and Lorient sees Monaco as the favorite, with a 52.0% probability of securing a home victory. The likelihood of Lorient triumphing is significantly lower at 24.0%, while a draw is also pegged at 24.0%. Currently, Monaco sits in 9th place in Ligue 1, whereas Lorient is positioned at 12th. The match is also anticipated to be a high-scoring affair, with a 51.0% probability of over 2.5 goals being netted.

Match Analysis

Monaco is looking to bounce back from a series of challenging fixtures. They have been on a three-game losing streak, suffering defeats against Lyon, Marseille, and Brest. A key concern for Monaco has been their struggling offense, managing an average of just 0.8 goals per game over the last five matches. Defensively, they have also had their issues, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game. Their expected goals (xG) metrics, however, suggest they have been creating decent opportunities, with an average xG of 1.608, indicating potential for improvement. On the other hand, Lorient's recent performances have shown a bit more resilience. They have drawn two of their last three matches against Metz and Strasbourg and secured a narrow victory against Lyon. Despite their modest position in the league, Lorient has managed to keep two clean sheets in their last five outings. However, scoring remains a challenge, with an average of just 0.2 goals per game despite a slightly higher expected goals figure of 1.122. Both teams' defensive frailties are highlighted as Lorient has also conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game.

Final Prediction

Monaco's edge in this encounter is largely due to their superior attacking potential and playing at home, which gives them a statistical advantage. Lorient may find it difficult to break down Monaco's defense, especially if Monaco capitalizes on their expected goal opportunities. A key factor to watch during the game will be whether Monaco can convert their higher xG into actual goals and whether Lorient can continue their recent defensive solidity to thwart Monaco's attacking threats.