Ligue 1 2026-2027: Monaco vs Toulouse Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Monaco

Home Team
44%
VS

Toulouse

Away Team
28%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 26.6
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Monaco

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Monaco
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.8 Monaco
Chance creation (xG data) +3.8 Toulouse
Results & dominance +2.4 Toulouse
Attack +2.0 Toulouse

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Monaco. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Toulouse attack & chance creation +3.6 Under
Form & results +3.2 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Monaco attack & chance creation +1.9 Under
Monaco defense +1.3 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 8 3 5 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 10 2 8 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 8 3 5 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 8 9 -1 10
6 Paris SG 5 2 2 1 8 7 1 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 6 5 1 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 10 10 0 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 9 9 0 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 7 12 -5 6
11 Brest 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5 6 -1 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 7 9 -2 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 3 6 -3 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 9 9 0 4
16 Troyes 5 1 1 3 4 11 -7 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 7 8 -1 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 4 7 -3 2

Recent Trends

Monaco W D W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)

Toulouse W D L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Monaco

xG (avg) 1.58
xGA (avg) 1.35
Clean Sheets 2

Toulouse

xG (avg) 1.33
xGA (avg) 2.17
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Monaco are the most likely winners at 44%, with a draw at 28% and a Toulouse win at 28%. The goals forecast leans under 2.5 at 56%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage and Monaco’s stronger team record support the hosts, while their home numbers also point to a solid base: they have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded at home. They are unbeaten in five league matches and have won four, including a 2-1 victory over Paris SG and, most recently, a 2-1 win over Lens, with a 1-1 draw at Strasbourg between those wins. Toulouse bring a more open threat. They have scored seven times in five league games, and their latest result was a 3-2 win over Le Havre, after a 2-2 draw away to Lorient. Their chance creation and recent results give them a route into the game, but they have kept no clean sheets in their last five matches. That defensive record could be costly against a Monaco side that has scored in each of its last three games.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Monaco
Goals in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%. The strongest support is that both teams’ recent form and chance creation point towards a lower total, despite the league scoring environment offering some counterweight.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Monaco
Corners in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.1 corners. Toulouse’s latest match, a 3-2 win over Le Havre, produced 13 corners, suggesting they can help drive the total.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Monaco
Shots in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 27 shots. Recent totals have varied, but Toulouse’s match against Le Havre featured 32 combined shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Monaco wins by X goals. Negative = Toulouse wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Monaco vs Toulouse with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Monaco vs Toulouse
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected margin is 0.2 goals in Monaco’s favour, a narrow advantage that matches the modest gap between the teams’ win probabilities.

Final Prediction

Toulouse’s ability to create chances is the clearest threat to the forecast. If they turn that attacking promise into goals again, Monaco’s home advantage may not be enough.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel