Ligue 1 2025-2026: Nice vs Marseille Prediction
Nice
Home Team
6%
VS
Marseille
Away Team
88%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5:
54%
Under 2.5:
46%
Goal:
52%
No Goal:
48%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Marseille | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 11 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Lens | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 25 |
| 4 | Strasbourg | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Lille | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Monaco | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 21 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Lyon | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Rennes | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Nice | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 | Le Havre | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 14 |
| 13 | Angers | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | Metz | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 27 | -15 | 11 |
| 15 | Brest | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Nantes | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Lorient | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 10 |
| 18 | Auxerre | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 7 |
Recent Trends
Nice
- Last Match: vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Lille (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 2)
Marseille
- Last Match: vs Brest (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Le Havre (Goals: 6 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Nice
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.86
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.61
# Clean Sheets:
1
Marseille
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.41
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.48
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Nice and Marseille is heavily tipped in favor of Marseille, with an 88.0% probability of a win for the away side. The match is predicted to have over 2.5 goals, with a 54.0% likelihood. Marseille currently stands strong in the 2nd position in Ligue 1, whereas Nice is positioned at 9th, which highlights the competitive gap between the two teams.
Match Analysis
Recent performances suggest contrasting fortunes for the two teams. Nice has struggled with consistency, recording a win against Lille but succumbing to defeats against Metz and Paris SG in their last three outings. Their defense has shown vulnerability, conceding crucial goals, though they managed to keep a clean sheet against Lille. On the other hand, Marseille has been in a more formidable form, securing victories against Brest and Auxerre and drawing with Angers. Their defense has been resilient, allowing no goals in two of their last three matches.
Key advanced metrics reveal some insights into the teams' dynamics. Nice has averaged 2.0 goals per match in their last five games, with an expected goals average of 1.856, indicating they have potential in attack but also concede an average of 0.8 goals. Marseille, meanwhile, has mirrored Nice's defensive record, conceding 0.8 goals on average. Their attack appears slightly less potent with an average of 1.4 goals scored, but their ability to maintain clean sheets could be pivotal in this encounter.
Final Prediction
Marseille's superior league standing and recent form give them a clear edge over Nice. Their defensive stability and ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities make them favorites. A key factor to watch will be Marseille's defense, which has the potential to stifle Nice's attacking efforts, further tilting the match in their favor.