Ligue 1 2025-2026: Paris FC vs Toulouse Prediction

Paris FC

Home Team
45%
VS

Toulouse

Away Team
30%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 15 11 1 3 26 13 13 34
2 Paris SG 15 10 3 2 32 12 20 33
3 Marseille 15 9 2 4 35 15 20 29
4 Lille 15 9 2 4 29 17 12 29
5 Lyon 15 7 3 5 21 16 5 24
6 Rennes 15 6 6 3 24 23 1 24
7 Monaco 15 7 2 6 26 26 0 23
8 Strasbourg 15 7 1 7 25 20 5 22
9 Toulouse 15 5 5 5 21 19 2 20
10 Brest 15 5 4 6 20 24 -4 19
11 Angers 15 5 4 6 13 17 -4 19
12 Nice 15 5 2 8 19 27 -8 17
13 Lorient 15 4 5 6 19 28 -9 17
14 Paris FC 15 4 4 7 21 26 -5 16
15 Le Havre 15 3 6 6 13 21 -8 15
16 Auxerre 15 3 3 9 11 21 -10 12
17 Nantes 15 2 5 8 13 24 -11 11
18 Metz 15 3 2 10 15 34 -19 11

Recent Trends

Paris FC ⚪ ⚪ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 0)

Toulouse ✅ ⚪ ❌ ⚪ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Paris FC

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.48
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.10
# Clean Sheets: 2

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.14
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.71
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Paris FC and Toulouse has Paris FC as the favorite with a 45.0% probability of winning. The game is expected to be a low-scoring affair with a 44.0% chance of seeing fewer than 2.5 goals. Currently positioned 14th in Ligue 1, Paris FC is slightly behind Toulouse, who sit in 9th place.

Match Analysis

Paris FC enters this match following a mixed bag of recent performances, drawing twice and losing once in their last three outings. After a goalless draw against Le Havre and a 1-1 draw at home with Auxerre, their defense struggled in a 2-4 defeat to Lille. Over their last five games, Paris FC has averaged 1.4 goals scored and conceded, showing both offensive potential and defensive vulnerabilities. Their expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) metrics suggest they are creating slightly more opportunities than they concede, with a notable two clean sheets in recent fixtures indicating defensive resilience at times. Toulouse, on the other hand, secured a narrow victory over Strasbourg but were held to a 2-2 draw by Marseille and suffered a 0-1 defeat to Angers. They have managed an average of 1.0 goals scored per game, slightly trailing behind their xG of 1.14. However, they've conceded an average of 1.2 goals per game, overshadowed by a higher xGA of 1.714, which might indicate potential defensive lapses. With two clean sheets in their last five matches, Toulouse has shown they can be defensively solid on their day.

Final Prediction

Paris FC is predicted to have an edge in this encounter, largely due to their slightly superior defensive metrics and home advantage. The key to this match could be Paris FC's ability to exploit Toulouse's higher expected goals against, creating opportunities to score. Fans should watch how effectively Paris FC can convert these chances against a sometimes shaky Toulouse defense.