Ligue 1 2025-2026: Paris SG vs Lorient Prediction - 2 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Paris SG

Home Team
87%
VS

Lorient

Away Team
6%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 24.9
Expected Spread: +2.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 30 22 3 5 68 25 43 69
2 Lens 30 20 3 7 60 32 28 63
3 Lyon 31 17 6 8 48 32 16 57
4 Lille 31 17 6 8 50 34 16 57
5 Rennes 31 16 8 7 54 42 12 56
6 Marseille 31 16 5 10 59 41 18 53
7 Monaco 31 15 6 10 54 47 7 51
8 Strasbourg 30 13 7 10 49 39 10 46
9 Lorient 31 10 11 10 42 47 -5 41
10 Toulouse 31 10 8 13 43 44 -1 38
11 Brest 30 10 8 12 41 47 -6 38
12 Paris FC 31 9 11 11 40 47 -7 38
13 Angers 31 9 7 15 26 43 -17 34
14 Le Havre 31 6 13 12 29 42 -13 31
15 Nice 31 7 9 15 35 57 -22 30
16 Auxerre 31 5 10 16 27 42 -15 25
17 Nantes 31 4 8 19 26 51 -25 20
18 Metz 31 3 7 21 31 70 -39 16

Recent Trends

Paris SG W W L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 4 - 0)

Lorient L W L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Paris SG

xG (avg) 2.16
xGA (avg) 0.76
Clean Sheets 3

Lorient

xG (avg) 1.14
xGA (avg) 1.80
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Paris SG are heavy favourites at home, with an 87.0% probability of victory against a Lorient side given just a 6.0% chance, and an 8.0% likelihood of a draw. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 prediction for goals. Top-of-the-table PSG (1st, 69 points) face a mid-table Lorient (9th, 41 points), with the gap in quality and form reflected clearly in the numbers.

Match Analysis

PSG come into this one on the back of two commanding 3-0 wins over Angers and Nantes, either side of a slightly puzzling 2-1 home defeat to Lyon. Even in that loss, they dominated the ball and territory, racking up 23 shots and 13 corners, suggesting performance levels remained high. Over their last five games they’ve averaged 2.2 goals scored and just 1.2 conceded, backed by strong underlying numbers: 2.164 expected goals (xG) for and only 0.756 xG against per match, plus three clean sheets. Lorient’s recent form has been far more fragile. They lost 3-2 at home to Strasbourg and 2-0 away at Lyon, with a 2-0 home victory over Marseille the lone bright spot in their last three. They’ve averaged just 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over the last five outings, with xG figures (1.136 for, 1.796 against) underlining a side that is creating less and allowing plenty. One clean sheet in that spell hints at defensive vulnerabilities that a free-scoring PSG are well placed to exploit.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Paris SG
Goals in last 5 matches
Lorient
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 53.0% probability, anticipating that PSG’s attack will open the game up. All three of PSG’s recent matches finished with exactly three goals, so 3/3 have gone over 2.5. Lorient have been more mixed, with one high-scoring game (2-3 vs Strasbourg) and two under 2.5 (2-0 vs Marseille and 0-2 vs Lyon). With PSG averaging 2.2 scored and Lorient conceding 1.8 per game, plus the home side’s xG edge, the balance tilts slightly towards another open scoreline.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Paris SG
Corners in last 5 matches
Lorient
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.49 total corners, suggesting a fairly active but not extreme game in wide areas. PSG’s recent corner counts (4, 7, 13 won) show an attacking team that can rack up set pieces, especially at home, while their opponents have also earned a fair number against them. Lorient’s matches have produced steady totals (9, 8, 10 overall in their last three), with them both winning and conceding a reasonable share. Given PSG’s tendency to press high and bombard the box, the predicted corners tally looks in line with the sides’ styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Paris SG
Shots in last 5 matches
Lorient
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure sits at 24.9 total attempts, which matches what we’ve seen from these two. PSG have fired 17, 14 and 23 shots in their last three, regularly pushing into double figures and dominating the shot count. Lorient have been more modest but consistent, taking 14, 11 and 12 shots while also allowing 11 to 16 against. With PSG’s strong attacking xG numbers, this shots prediction reflects a game where the champions-elect do most of the shooting, with Lorient looking to counter when they can.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Paris SG wins by X goals. Negative = Lorient wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Paris SG vs Lorient with expected spread of +2.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Paris SG vs Lorient
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +2.38 in favour of PSG, meaning the home side are projected to win by more than two goals on average. Across their last three league games, PSG are +4 on goal difference (7 scored, 2 conceded), while Lorient are -3 (4 scored, 7 conceded). Coupled with the 87.0% win probability and PSG’s vastly superior attacking and defensive metrics, the expected spread underlines just how tilted this fixture is towards the league leaders.

Final Prediction

PSG’s edge is clear: stronger recent form, far better xG profile, more clean sheets and a frontline that regularly hits multiple goals. Lorient will need to be organised and ruthless on the break to stay in touch. One key factor to watch will be how quickly PSG can turn pressure into goals; if they score early, the game could easily run to the predicted margin.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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