Ligue 1 2026-2027: Rennes vs Auxerre Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Rennes

Home Team
62%
VS

Auxerre

Away Team
17%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 65%
Under 2.5: 35%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 10.5
Expected Shots: 27.7
Expected Spread: +0.8

Why the Model Leans Rennes

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Rennes
Attack +4.4 Rennes
Chance creation (xG data) +4.0 Rennes
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.0 Rennes
Results & dominance +2.7 Rennes

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 78% for Rennes. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Rennes attack & chance creation +5.1 Over
Auxerre defense +4.8 Over
Rennes defense +4.4 Over
Auxerre attack & chance creation +2.9 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 8 3 5 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 10 2 8 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 8 3 5 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 8 9 -1 10
6 Paris SG 5 2 2 1 8 7 1 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 6 5 1 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 10 10 0 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 9 9 0 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 7 12 -5 6
11 Brest 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5 6 -1 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 7 9 -2 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 3 6 -3 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 9 9 0 4
16 Troyes 5 1 1 3 4 11 -7 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 7 8 -1 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 4 7 -3 2

Recent Trends

Rennes L W W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Le Mans (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 2)

Auxerre W W L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 5)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Rennes

xG (avg) 2.98
xGA (avg) 2.02
Clean Sheets 1

Auxerre

xG (avg) 1.31
xGA (avg) 4.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Rennes are favoured at home, with a 62% chance of winning, compared with 17% for Auxerre and 21% for a draw. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, at 65%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator, reinforced by Rennes’ stronger attack and chance creation. Rennes have scored an average of 2.0 goals in recent home games, while their 3.0 expected goals there suggest they have created more than their finishing has delivered. Auxerre’s away defensive record is a concern. Rennes beat Angers 2-1 and Marseille 1-0 before their latest result, a 0-4 defeat away to Lyon. Auxerre arrive after back-to-back home wins, beating Nice 1-0 before edging Brest 2-1. Those results give the visitors some momentum, but their defensive record away from home could be tested by Rennes.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Rennes
Goals in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 65%, chiefly because Rennes’ attacking threat and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides point toward chances. Auxerre’s attack and chance creation offer a counterweight, but the league scoring environment also leans toward a higher total.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Rennes
Corners in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.5 corners. Rennes-Lyon and Auxerre-Brest each produced 11 corners, offering a recent indication of activity in this area.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Rennes
Shots in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 28 shots in total. Rennes-Lyon produced 28, while Auxerre-Brest had 19, so Rennes’ latest match provides the stronger indication of the volume expected.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Rennes wins by X goals. Negative = Auxerre wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Rennes vs Auxerre with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Rennes vs Auxerre
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.8 goals in Rennes’ favour, in line with the home side’s stronger win probability.

Final Prediction

Rennes’ latest 0-4 defeat to Lyon is the warning sign for this forecast. If Auxerre can expose the same defensive weakness, their recent wins could translate into a tougher test than the home-win odds suggest.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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