Ligue 1 2026-2027: Strasbourg vs Auxerre Prediction - 1 Nov 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Strasbourg

Home Team
40%
VS

Auxerre

Away Team
31%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 65%
No Goal: 35%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 27.3
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Strasbourg

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Strasbourg
Attack +4.3 Auxerre
Chance creation (xG data) +3.6 Auxerre

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Strasbourg. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Auxerre defense +2.4 Over
Form & results +1.3 Under
Strasbourg defense +1.3 Over
Auxerre attack & chance creation +0.9 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 9 6 2 1 21 10 11 20
2 Rennes 9 5 1 3 20 19 1 16
3 Lille 8 4 3 1 11 6 5 15
4 Monaco 8 4 3 1 11 7 4 15
5 Lyon 8 4 2 2 13 7 6 14
6 Paris FC 8 4 2 2 13 9 4 14
7 Nice 9 4 2 3 13 12 1 14
8 Lens 8 4 1 3 16 12 4 13
9 Marseille 8 4 0 4 18 13 5 12
10 Lorient 8 3 3 2 7 6 1 12
11 Toulouse 8 2 4 2 12 11 1 10
12 Auxerre 8 3 1 4 12 18 -6 10
13 Brest 8 2 3 3 14 12 2 9
14 Angers 8 2 2 4 9 15 -6 8
15 Le Mans 8 1 4 3 11 16 -5 7
16 Strasbourg 8 2 1 5 12 18 -6 7
17 Troyes 8 1 2 5 5 16 -11 5
18 Le Havre 9 0 2 7 9 20 -11 2

Recent Trends

Strasbourg L L L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 1)

Auxerre D W L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Le Mans (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Strasbourg

xG (avg) 1.28
xGA (avg) 2.03
Clean Sheets 0

Auxerre

xG (avg) 1.45
xGA (avg) 2.90
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Strasbourg are the narrow favourites, with a 40% chance of winning, compared with 31% for Auxerre and 29% for a draw. The lean is towards over 2.5 goals, at 56%, with both sides’ defensive records contributing to the prospect of an open scoreline.

Match Analysis

Home advantage gives Strasbourg a route to the win, but Auxerre’s attack and chance creation are the stronger side of the visitors’ case. Strasbourg have scored 12 goals in eight league matches, the same as Auxerre, but their home performances will need to improve: they have averaged 1.7 goals conceded at home and have kept no clean sheet in their last five matches. Strasbourg arrive after three consecutive defeats. Their latest was a 0-3 loss away to Rennes, following a 1-3 home defeat to Paris SG and a 1-2 loss away to Nice. Auxerre have been more competitive in their latest results, drawing 1-1 with Le Mans after a 3-1 away win over Le Havre, though their away defending remains a concern. They have conceded an average of 3.3 goals away from home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Strasbourg
Goals in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 56%. Auxerre’s away defending is the clearest reason for that lean, while Strasbourg have also struggled to keep opponents out.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Strasbourg
Corners in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.2 corners. Recent matches have shown both sides winning corners, including Auxerre’s 7-1 advantage against Le Mans and Strasbourg’s 4-2 count at Rennes.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Strasbourg
Shots in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 27 shots. Both teams have produced double-digit attempts in each of their three most recent matches, pointing to regular attacking activity.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Strasbourg wins by X goals. Negative = Auxerre wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Strasbourg vs Auxerre with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Strasbourg vs Auxerre
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Strasbourg are favoured by a narrow margin of 0.2 goals. That small advantage fits a forecast in which the home side is more likely to win, but a draw or an Auxerre victory remains plausible.

Final Prediction

Auxerre’s ability to create chances is the clearest threat to Strasbourg’s slight home advantage. If Strasbourg’s defence cannot limit that threat, the visitors’ attack could turn a close forecast in their favour.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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