Ligue 1 2025-2026: Strasbourg vs Brest Prediction

Strasbourg

Home Team
66%
VS

Brest

Away Team
17%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 13 9 3 1 27 11 16 30
2 Marseille 13 9 1 3 33 12 21 28
3 Lens 13 9 1 3 22 11 11 28
4 Lille 13 7 2 4 27 17 10 23
5 Strasbourg 13 7 1 5 24 17 7 22
6 Rennes 13 5 6 2 23 18 5 21
7 Lyon 13 6 3 4 18 15 3 21
8 Monaco 13 6 2 5 25 25 0 20
9 Nice 13 5 2 6 18 23 -5 17
10 Toulouse 13 4 4 5 18 17 1 16
11 Angers 13 4 4 5 11 15 -4 16
12 Paris FC 13 4 2 7 20 25 -5 14
13 Le Havre 13 3 5 5 13 20 -7 14
14 Brest 13 3 4 6 17 23 -6 13
15 Nantes 13 2 5 6 12 19 -7 11
16 Lorient 13 2 5 6 15 27 -12 11
17 Metz 13 3 2 8 14 30 -16 11
18 Auxerre 13 2 2 9 7 19 -12 8

Recent Trends

Strasbourg ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lille (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Auxerre (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 2)

Brest ✅ ❌ ⚪ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Strasbourg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.34
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.80
# Clean Sheets: 2

Brest

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.99
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.03
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Strasbourg is predicted to win against Brest with a 66.0% probability, indicating a strong likelihood of a home victory. The game is expected to see over 2.5 goals, with a 52.0% probability supporting this outcome. Strasbourg currently sits in 5th place in Ligue 1, while Brest is struggling in 14th place, highlighting the disparity between the two teams.

Match Analysis

In recent performances, Strasbourg has displayed mixed results. They secured a convincing 2-0 home victory against Lille but faltered on the road with losses to Lens and Rennes. This inconsistency highlights their strength at home and potential vulnerabilities away. Key advanced metrics show that Strasbourg averages 2.4 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded per game over the last five matches, illustrating a robust offensive and defensive form, especially at home. Brest, on the other hand, has experienced a challenging run, with only one win in their last three games. Their victory against Metz was offset by a heavy defeat to Marseille and a goalless draw against Lyon. Brest's metrics reveal an average of 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per game in their recent outings, suggesting defensive frailties that Strasbourg might exploit. Additionally, Brest's expected goals metrics reflect their struggles, with only 0.988 expected goals over the last five matches.

Final Prediction

Strasbourg's edge in this matchup lies in their superior form and home advantage, bolstered by their higher offensive and defensive averages. The key factor to watch will be Strasbourg's ability to capitalize on Brest's defensive weaknesses, potentially leading to a high-scoring game. Fans can anticipate an engaging encounter with Strasbourg poised to strengthen their position in the league standings.