Ligue 1 2025-2026: Strasbourg vs Toulouse Prediction - 3 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Strasbourg

Home Team
63%
VS

Toulouse

Away Team
18%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.2
Expected Spread: +0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 30 22 3 5 68 25 43 69
2 Lens 30 20 3 7 60 32 28 63
3 Lyon 31 17 6 8 48 32 16 57
4 Lille 31 17 6 8 50 34 16 57
5 Rennes 31 16 8 7 54 42 12 56
6 Marseille 31 16 5 10 59 41 18 53
7 Monaco 31 15 6 10 54 47 7 51
8 Strasbourg 30 13 7 10 49 39 10 46
9 Lorient 31 10 11 10 42 47 -5 41
10 Toulouse 31 10 8 13 43 44 -1 38
11 Brest 30 10 8 12 41 47 -6 38
12 Paris FC 31 9 11 11 40 47 -7 38
13 Angers 31 9 7 15 26 43 -17 34
14 Le Havre 31 6 13 12 29 42 -13 31
15 Nice 31 7 9 15 35 57 -22 30
16 Auxerre 31 5 10 16 27 42 -15 25
17 Nantes 31 4 8 19 26 51 -25 20
18 Metz 31 3 7 21 31 70 -39 16

Recent Trends

Strasbourg W L W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)

Toulouse D L L L W

  • Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Strasbourg

xG (avg) 1.59
xGA (avg) 1.34
Clean Sheets 1

Toulouse

xG (avg) 1.24
xGA (avg) 1.81
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Strasbourg are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 63.0% chance of victory against a Toulouse side given just an 18.0% probability, and a 19.0% chance of a draw. Sitting 8th on 46 points, Strasbourg are pushing to stay in the European conversation, while 10th‑placed Toulouse (38 points) are drifting in mid-table. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0% and both teams backed to score (53.0% probability of “goal”).

Match Analysis

Strasbourg’s recent form has been lively if slightly erratic: a 3-1 win over Nice and a 3-2 away victory at Lorient were split by a disappointing 0-3 home defeat to Rennes. Those two wins underline their attacking punch (six goals scored in the two victories), while the Rennes loss shows they can still be exposed. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with underlying numbers of 1.59 xG for and 1.338 xG against suggesting a broadly well‑balanced side with a slight attacking edge. Toulouse come in on a tougher run: a 0-4 home defeat to Lille and a 2-3 loss at Lens were only partially offset by a spirited 2-2 draw with Monaco. They’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored but 2.4 conceded across their last five, with 1.242 xG for and a worrying 1.806 xG against, underlining a defence that is giving up too many good chances. That defensive frailty, set against Strasbourg’s more stable profile, goes a long way to explaining the strong home win probability and the positive expected spread for the hosts.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Strasbourg
Goals in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 52.0% is backed by recent scorelines: all three of Strasbourg’s last games finished over 2.5 goals (3-1, 0-3, 3-2), and all three of Toulouse’s did as well (2-2, 2-3, 0-4). With Strasbourg averaging 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, and Toulouse at 1.6 scored and 2.4 conceded, neither side is involved in many low-scoring battles. Their xG profiles – both above 1.2 in attack and Toulouse conceding 1.806 xG – further support an open match rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Strasbourg
Corners in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 9.45, pointing towards a roughly average number of set‑pieces from wide areas. Strasbourg’s last three games produced 11, 11 and 13 total corners, while Toulouse’s matches yielded 6, 15 and 6, suggesting they can be involved in swings depending on game state. Given both teams’ willingness to attack and cross, this corners prediction fits two sides that push forward but don’t relentlessly rack up corners every week.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Strasbourg
Shots in last 5 matches
Toulouse
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.19, indicating a match with a fair amount of goalmouth action. Strasbourg’s last three outings saw them take 11, 9 and 16 shots, facing 14, 26 and 8; Toulouse attempted 18, 5 and 9, while conceding 8, 41 and 15. Those numbers align with the shots prediction and the xG figures, supporting the idea of a game where Strasbourg generate enough efforts to justify their favourite status, with Toulouse dangerous but often on the back foot.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Strasbourg wins by X goals. Negative = Toulouse wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Strasbourg vs Toulouse with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Strasbourg vs Toulouse
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at +0.59 in favour of Strasbourg, reflecting the expectation that the hosts win by around a single goal. Recent scorelines back this: Strasbourg are +2 on aggregate over their last three (6 scored, 6 conceded but with two wins), while Toulouse sit at -5 (4 scored, 9 conceded). Combined with a 63.0% home win probability and Strasbourg’s slightly stronger defensive metrics, the expected spread points clearly towards a narrow but deserved home success.

Final Prediction

Strasbourg’s blend of solid underlying numbers, home advantage and Toulouse’s leaky recent defending gives the Alsatians a clear edge. If Strasbourg can translate their 1.59 xG average into early goals, Toulouse’s suspect back line may struggle to keep them in range. The key factor to watch will be how often Toulouse’s attack can test Strasbourg’s defence; if the visitors create regularly, this could turn into the kind of open, end-to-end contest the numbers are hinting at.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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