Ligue 1 2025-2026: Toulouse vs Marseille Prediction - 7 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Toulouse

Home Team
33%
VS

Marseille

Away Team
44%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 24 18 3 3 53 19 34 57
2 Lens 24 17 2 5 45 21 24 53
3 Lyon 24 14 3 7 39 26 13 45
4 Marseille 24 13 4 7 51 33 18 43
5 Lille 24 12 4 8 37 31 6 40
6 Rennes 24 11 7 6 38 35 3 40
7 Monaco 24 11 4 9 40 36 4 37
8 Strasbourg 24 10 5 9 40 31 9 35
9 Brest 24 9 6 9 32 34 -2 33
10 Lorient 24 8 9 7 34 38 -4 33
11 Toulouse 24 8 7 9 33 28 5 31
12 Angers 24 8 5 11 22 30 -8 29
13 Le Havre 24 6 8 10 20 30 -10 26
14 Paris FC 24 6 8 10 28 40 -12 26
15 Nice 24 6 6 12 30 44 -14 24
16 Auxerre 24 4 6 14 19 35 -16 18
17 Nantes 24 4 5 15 22 41 -19 17
18 Metz 24 3 4 17 22 53 -31 13

Recent Trends

Toulouse L D L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 0)

Marseille W L D L D

  • Last Match: W vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.27
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.15
# Clean Sheets: 1

Marseille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.96
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.88
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Marseille are slight favourites to take all three points in Toulouse, with a 44.0% chance of an away win compared to a 33.0% probability for the hosts and 23.0% for the draw. Fourth in Ligue 1 on 43 points, Marseille are chasing the Champions League places, while 11th‑placed Toulouse (31 points) are trying to stay in the top half. The model points towards an open contest, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 53.0%.

Match Analysis

Toulouse come into this one on a tricky run: one draw and two defeats in their last three, but the performances have often been better than the results. They dominated Paris FC (1-1) and Le Havre (1-2) in terms of corners and shots, racking up 12 and 10 corners and 23 and 25 shots respectively, yet only earned a single point from those two games. Their recent numbers – 1.4 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded on average over the last five matches, with xG for at 1.27 and xG against at 1.15 – suggest a fairly balanced side that is not being blown away, even when they lose. Marseille arrive with more volatility: a dramatic 3-2 win over Lyon, a 0-2 defeat at Brest and a 2-2 draw with Strasbourg underline how high-scoring and chaotic their games have become. They are averaging 1.4 goals scored but a worrying 2.4 conceded in their last five, and crucially have not kept a single clean sheet in that spell. The xG tells a similar story of front‑foot football and defensive looseness: 1.958 expected goals created per match, but 1.878 expected goals conceded. That attacking tilt, combined with Toulouse’s ability to generate pressure, gives this fixture the feel of a game that could swing quickly.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Toulouse
Goals in last 5 matches
Marseille
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0%, and the recent form of both sides backs that up. Two of Marseille’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Lyon, 2-2 vs Strasbourg), while Toulouse have seen one of their last three go over – the 1-2 loss at Le Havre – with the other two finishing 1-0 and 1-1. With both teams averaging 1.4 goals scored, and Marseille conceding 2.4 per game on top of high xG numbers (1.958 for, 1.878 against), the balance of evidence suggests chances and goals rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Toulouse
Corners in last 5 matches
Marseille
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.36, which fits a clash between two sides who attack but in different ways. Toulouse’s last three outings have produced 1, 12 and 10 corners in their favour, showcasing how their sustained pressure against Paris FC and Le Havre forced set‑pieces. Marseille, meanwhile, have recorded 8, 2 and 5 corners across their last three; not constant bombardment, but enough to suggest they will contribute to the predicted corners total, especially when chasing goals with their front‑foot style.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Toulouse
Shots in last 5 matches
Marseille
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction points to around 25.59 expected shots overall, consistent with what both sides have produced recently. Toulouse have fired 9, 23 and 25 shots in their last three matches, while Marseille have attempted 18, 17 and 10. Those volumes marry up neatly with the strong attacking xG figures on both sides, particularly Marseille’s 1.958 xG per game, indicating that the expected shots tally is likely to be met if the game opens up early.

Final Prediction

Marseille’s greater attacking punch, higher xG, and superior league position give them a slight edge, even if their defensive issues keep the door open for Toulouse. With Toulouse generating huge shot and corner counts in recent weeks and Marseille incapable of keeping clean sheets, the key factor to watch will be how well the visitors manage Toulouse’s sustained pressure while still committing numbers forward.

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