Ligue 1 2026-2027: Troyes vs Le Mans Prediction - 31 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Troyes

Home Team
50%
VS

Le Mans

Away Team
24%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 24.7
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Troyes

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Troyes
Defense +4.2 Troyes
Chance creation (xG data) +2.7 Le Mans
Attack +2.4 Troyes
Results & dominance +1.5 Troyes

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 68% for Troyes. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Troyes attack & chance creation +2.7 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Le Mans attack & chance creation +1.7 Under
Form & results +0.9 Under
Le Mans defense +0.8 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 9 6 2 1 21 10 11 20
2 Rennes 9 5 1 3 20 19 1 16
3 Lille 8 4 3 1 11 6 5 15
4 Monaco 8 4 3 1 11 7 4 15
5 Lyon 8 4 2 2 13 7 6 14
6 Paris FC 8 4 2 2 13 9 4 14
7 Nice 9 4 2 3 13 12 1 14
8 Lens 8 4 1 3 16 12 4 13
9 Marseille 8 4 0 4 18 13 5 12
10 Lorient 8 3 3 2 7 6 1 12
11 Toulouse 8 2 4 2 12 11 1 10
12 Auxerre 8 3 1 4 12 18 -6 10
13 Brest 8 2 3 3 14 12 2 9
14 Angers 8 2 2 4 9 15 -6 8
15 Le Mans 8 1 4 3 11 16 -5 7
16 Strasbourg 8 2 1 5 12 18 -6 7
17 Troyes 8 1 2 5 5 16 -11 5
18 Le Havre 9 0 2 7 9 20 -11 2

Recent Trends

Troyes D L L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 2)

Le Mans D L L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Troyes

xG (avg) 1.43
xGA (avg) 2.05
Clean Sheets 1

Le Mans

xG (avg) 1.91
xGA (avg) 2.56
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Troyes are the likeliest winners at 50%, with a draw at 25% and a Le Mans win at 24%. Under 2.5 goals is the slight lean at 51%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator, with Troyes also rated better defensively and in attack. But their home scoring record makes the advantage less secure: they have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded at home. Their latest result was a 0-0 draw away to Toulouse, after a 1-3 home loss to Lens and a 0-2 home loss to Marseille. Le Mans have a potential route through their stronger chance creation, particularly away from home, though their goals return has lagged behind those chances. They drew 1-1 away to Auxerre most recently, following a 0-3 home defeat to Toulouse and a 1-3 away loss to Paris SG. Their lack of a clean sheet in their last five also leaves room for Troyes to make the home advantage count.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Troyes
Goals in last 5 matches
Le Mans
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 51%, with Troyes' attack and chance creation the strongest influence on that lean. Their modest home scoring average points to a game where goals may be hard to come by, although Le Mans have conceded regularly.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Troyes
Corners in last 5 matches
Le Mans
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected total is 9.9 corners. Troyes had six corners in each of their last two home matches, while Le Mans' recent away totals have varied from four to eight.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Troyes
Shots in last 5 matches
Le Mans
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected total is 25 shots. Recent shot counts suggest both sides can contribute, with Troyes taking 15 against Marseille and Le Mans recording 11 in each of their last three matches.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Troyes wins by X goals. Negative = Le Mans wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Troyes vs Le Mans with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Troyes vs Le Mans
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about half a goal in Troyes' favour. That fits a home side more likely to win, but with a draw still a substantial possibility.

Final Prediction

Le Mans' ability to turn their away chances into goals could change the picture. If they finish more effectively than they have so far, Troyes' home advantage may not be enough.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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