Ligue 1 2026-2027: Troyes vs Marseille Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Troyes

Home Team
41%
VS

Marseille

Away Team
31%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 10.7
Expected Shots: 28.7
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Troyes

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Troyes
Results & dominance +2.2 Marseille
Chance creation (xG data) +1.2 Marseille
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.2 Troyes

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Troyes. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Marseille defense +5.1 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Marseille attack & chance creation +1.6 Over
Troyes defense +1.1 Over
Troyes attack & chance creation +1.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 62% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 8 3 5 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 10 2 8 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 8 3 5 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 8 9 -1 10
6 Paris SG 5 2 2 1 8 7 1 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 6 5 1 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 10 10 0 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 9 9 0 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 7 12 -5 6
11 Brest 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5 6 -1 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 7 9 -2 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 3 6 -3 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 9 9 0 4
16 Troyes 5 1 1 3 4 11 -7 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 7 8 -1 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 4 7 -3 2

Recent Trends

Troyes L L L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 6)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)

Marseille L L L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 4 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Troyes

xG (avg) 1.50
xGA (avg) 2.54
Clean Sheets 1

Marseille

xG (avg) 1.28
xGA (avg) 1.97
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Troyes are narrow favourites, with a 41% chance of winning, compared with 31% for Marseille and 28% for a draw. Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 62%, despite both teams’ difficult starts to the season.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator, though Troyes’ recent home defending has been fragile. Marseille’s own run of defeats and struggles to score away from home limit their advantage in a contest the numbers rate closely. Both sides have lost three in a row. Troyes most recently fell 0-2 at Angers, after a 0-2 defeat at Lille and an earlier 2-6 home loss to Strasbourg. Marseille’s latest result was a 1-2 defeat to Paris SG, following a 0-1 loss at Rennes and a 2-3 defeat to Paris FC. Marseille have averaged 1.3 expected goals away from home but scored none, a sign that their finishing has lagged behind their chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Troyes
Goals in last 5 matches
Marseille
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favored at 62%. Marseille’s defensive vulnerability is the strongest reason for that lean, with the league scoring environment and Troyes’ own defensive issues also pointing toward goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Troyes
Corners in last 5 matches
Marseille
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.7 corners in total. Troyes’ latest match against Angers had 13 corners, while their home game against Strasbourg produced 11 for Troyes alone.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Troyes
Shots in last 5 matches
Marseille
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 29 shots. Troyes attempted 19 in their latest game, and Marseille faced 31 shots from Paris SG, pointing to the potential for plenty of activity at both ends.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Troyes wins by X goals. Negative = Marseille wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Troyes vs Marseille with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Troyes vs Marseille
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.2 goals in Troyes’ favour, a narrow home-side tilt rather than a strong separation.

Final Prediction

Troyes’ vulnerable home defending gives Marseille a route to upset the forecast. The visitors’ chances of taking it depend on turning their away chances into goals, something they have not yet managed.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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