Premier League 2025-2026: Arsenal vs Everton Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Arsenal

Home Team
87%
VS

Everton

Away Team
6%
Draw: 7%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Shots: 23.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 30 20 7 3 59 22 37 67
2 Man City 29 18 6 5 59 27 32 60
3 Man United 29 14 9 6 51 40 11 51
4 Aston Villa 29 15 6 8 39 34 5 51
5 Chelsea 29 13 9 7 53 34 19 48
6 Liverpool 29 14 6 9 48 39 9 48
7 Brentford 29 13 5 11 44 40 4 44
8 Everton 29 12 7 10 34 33 1 43
9 Bournemouth 29 9 13 7 44 46 -2 40
10 Fulham 29 12 4 13 40 43 -3 40
11 Sunderland 29 10 10 9 30 34 -4 40
12 Newcastle 29 11 6 12 42 43 -1 39
13 Crystal Palace 29 10 8 11 33 35 -2 38
14 Brighton 29 9 10 10 38 36 2 37
15 Leeds 29 7 10 12 37 48 -11 31
16 Tottenham 29 7 8 14 39 46 -7 29
17 Nott'm Forest 29 7 7 15 28 43 -15 28
18 West Ham 29 7 7 15 35 54 -19 28
19 Burnley 29 4 7 18 32 58 -26 19
20 Wolves 30 3 7 20 22 52 -30 16

Recent Trends

Arsenal W W W D D

  • Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 1)

Everton W W L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Arsenal

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.89
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.14
# Clean Sheets: 1

Everton

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.48
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Arsenal are clear favourites at the Emirates, with an 87.0% probability of victory against an Everton side given just a 6.0% chance, and only a 7.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards a tight game in terms of goals, backing under 2.5 with a 50.0% probability. Top-of-the-table Arsenal (1st, 67 points) face an Everton team still punching above mid‑table (8th, 43 points) but up against one of the league’s most complete sides.

Match Analysis

Arsenal come into this with real momentum: three straight wins over Brighton (1-0), Chelsea (2-1) and Tottenham (4-1), showing they can edge tight contests and also blow teams away when they click. Across their last five, they’re averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with an xG of 1.888 for and 1.136 against. That combination of consistent chance creation and relatively solid defending underlines why they sit top and why the win probability is so heavily in their favour. Everton’s recent form is respectable: wins over Burnley (2-0) and Newcastle (3-2) bookend a narrow 1-0 defeat to Man United. They’ve been efficient rather than explosive, averaging 1.8 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded in their last five, supported by 1.606 xG for and 1.482 xG against. Those numbers suggest they can compete physically and tactically, but away at the league leaders, that small defensive edge may not be enough against Arsenal’s more potent attack and home advantage.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Arsenal
Goals in last 5 matches
Everton
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over/under 2.5 prediction leans slightly to under 2.5 goals at 50.0%, despite Arsenal’s attacking talent. Two of Arsenal’s last three matches went over 2.5 (3 and 5 total goals), with only the 1-0 win at Brighton landing under. Everton have seen a similar pattern: two of their last three went over (2-0 and 3-2) and only the 1-0 loss to United was under, but their recent average of 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, plus Arsenal’s 2.2 for and 1.0 against, suggests the defences may tighten in a high‑stakes clash, justifying an under 2.5 call.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Arsenal
Shots in last 5 matches
Everton
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.18, hinting at a match with chances but not a wild shoot-out. Arsenal’s last three show 7, 12 and 20 attempts, reflecting how they can ramp up volume when on top, while Everton have registered 14, 9 and 12, and also faced 5, 17 and 11. That balance, combined with Arsenal’s 1.888 xG and Everton’s 1.606 xG averages, supports a shots prediction in the low‑to‑mid 20s rather than a barrage, aligning with the cautious no‑goal/low‑scoring model view.

Final Prediction

Arsenal’s edge comes from their league-leading position, stronger recent attacking output, and superior underlying numbers, all reinforced by home advantage. Everton’s resilience and compactness give them a puncher’s chance, but they’ll likely spend long spells without the ball. The key factor to watch is whether Everton’s back line can withstand Arsenal’s sustained pressure in the final third; if they crack early, the hosts should control the evening.

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