Premier League 2025-2026: Arsenal vs Liverpool Prediction
Arsenal
Home Team
72%
VS
Liverpool
Away Team
13%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5:
47%
Under 2.5:
53%
Goal:
52%
No Goal:
48%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 26 | 48 |
| 2 | Man City | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 44 | 18 | 26 | 42 |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 42 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 34 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 31 |
| 6 | Man United | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 34 | 30 | 4 | 31 |
| 7 | Brentford | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 30 |
| 8 | Sunderland | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 30 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 29 |
| 10 | Brighton | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 28 |
| 11 | Fulham | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 28 |
| 12 | Everton | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 28 |
| 13 | Tottenham | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 27 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 27 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 23 |
| 16 | Leeds | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 22 |
| 17 | Nott'm Forest | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 18 |
| 18 | West Ham | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 14 |
| 19 | Burnley | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 39 | -19 | 12 |
| 20 | Wolves | 20 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 40 | -26 | 6 |
Recent Trends
Arsenal
- Last Match: vs Bournemouth (Goals: 3 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Aston Villa (Goals: 4 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Brighton (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 1)
Liverpool
- Last Match: vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Brighton (Goals: 2 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Arsenal
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.70
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.98
# Clean Sheets:
1
Liverpool
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.52
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.14
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
Arsenal is predicted to emerge victorious with a significant probability of 72.0% against Liverpool, who only have a 13.0% chance of claiming a win. A draw stands at a 15.0% probability. The game is expected to have under 2.5 goals with a 47.0% probability. Arsenal currently leads the Premier League standings, while Liverpool is positioned 4th.
Match Analysis
Both teams have shown differing forms in their recent encounters. Arsenal is on a winning streak with victories over Bournemouth, Aston Villa, and Brighton, demonstrating their relentless form both home and away. The Gunners have been effective in front of goal, averaging 2.8 goals per game in their last five matches while maintaining a solid defense, conceding just 0.8 goals on average.
Liverpool, on the other hand, has experienced a mixed bag of results. They managed a win against Wolves but were held to draws by Fulham and Leeds. Liverpool has scored and conceded an average of 1.8 goals in their last five games, indicating a need for improvement on both ends of the pitch. The Reds have managed two clean sheets, highlighting some defensive resilience.
Advanced metrics reveal that Arsenal has an expected goal rate of 2.696, suggesting their attacking prowess is likely to continue. Defensively, they've managed to keep their expected goals conceded to a low 0.978. Liverpool's expected goals scored stands at 1.52, with an expected concession rate of 1.142, indicating they might struggle to break through Arsenal's robust defense.
Final Prediction
Arsenal's recent form and superior advanced metrics give them the edge in this encounter. Their ability to consistently score while maintaining a strong defense makes them favorites to secure the win. A key factor to watch will be whether Liverpool's attack can penetrate Arsenal's sturdy backline and whether Arsenal can maintain their attacking momentum.