Premier League 2025-2026: Brighton vs Arsenal Prediction - 4 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Brighton

Home Team
16%
VS

Arsenal

Away Team
71%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Shots: 22.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 29 19 7 3 58 22 36 64
2 Man City 28 18 5 5 57 25 32 59
3 Man United 28 14 9 5 50 38 12 51
4 Aston Villa 28 15 6 7 38 30 8 51
5 Liverpool 28 14 6 8 47 37 10 48
6 Chelsea 28 12 9 7 49 33 16 45
7 Brentford 28 13 4 11 44 40 4 43
8 Everton 28 11 7 10 32 33 -1 40
9 Fulham 28 12 4 12 40 42 -2 40
10 Bournemouth 28 9 12 7 44 46 -2 39
11 Brighton 28 9 10 9 38 35 3 37
12 Sunderland 28 9 10 9 29 34 -5 37
13 Newcastle 28 10 6 12 40 42 -2 36
14 Crystal Palace 28 9 8 11 30 34 -4 35
15 Leeds 28 7 10 11 37 47 -10 31
16 Tottenham 28 7 8 13 38 43 -5 29
17 Nott'm Forest 28 7 6 15 26 41 -15 27
18 West Ham 28 6 7 15 34 54 -20 25
19 Burnley 28 4 7 17 32 56 -24 19
20 Wolves 29 2 7 20 20 51 -31 13

Recent Trends

Brighton W W L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 1)

Arsenal W W D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brighton

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.17
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.00
# Clean Sheets: 1

Arsenal

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.50
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.57
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Arsenal are strong favourites here, with a 71.0% probability of taking all three points away at 11th‑placed Brighton, who have just a 16.0% chance of an upset. The model leans towards a tight affair rather than a shoot-out, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite Arsenal’s attacking form. As league leaders on 64 points, Arsenal cannot afford slips with the title race so tight, while Brighton sit in mid-table on 37 points.

Match Analysis

Brighton come into this on a mixed but competitive run: a 2-1 home win over Nottingham Forest, a controlled 2-0 victory at Brentford, and a narrow 1-0 defeat away to Aston Villa. They’ve kept games tight, with scorelines of 3, 2 and 1 total goals, and have generally been in every match. Over the last five, they’ve averaged 1.2 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, backed up by 1.168 expected goals created and 0.998 xG against – numbers that reflect a balanced, compact side rather than the wild end‑to‑end Brighton of previous seasons. Arsenal, top of the table, arrive in far more explosive form. They’ve beaten Chelsea 2-1 at home and thrashed Tottenham 4-1 away, before being held 2-2 at Wolves. That’s 8 goals scored and 4 conceded across their last three, showing both threat and a bit of vulnerability. Their advanced metrics underline why they’re favourites: 2.2 goals per game over the last five, with an even stronger 2.502 xG, while conceding just 0.8 goals from only 0.572 xG against. In short, they’re consistently creating better chances than their opponents and generally limiting what they face.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brighton
Goals in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Goals in last 5 matches
The model edges towards under 2.5 with a 53.0% implied probability (given 47.0% for over 2.5), which is interesting given Arsenal’s recent scorelines. Two of Brighton’s last three matches have finished under 2.5 goals (2-0 and 0-1), with just the 2-1 against Forest going over, while two of Arsenal’s last three have gone over 2.5 (4-1 at Spurs and 2-2 at Wolves). Brighton’s 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, plus Arsenal’s 2.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, alongside relatively modest xG against for both, support the idea of a controlled contest where defences don’t completely collapse, making the under 2.5 prediction reasonable despite Arsenal’s firepower.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brighton
Shots in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 22.81, again pointing to a game with regular but not frantic goal attempts. Brighton’s last three matches have featured combined shot totals of 27, 24 and 24, while Arsenal’s have produced 21, 26 and 15, all broadly consistent with the shots prediction. Given Arsenal’s 2.502 xG average and Brighton’s 1.168, it points to Arsenal generating the clearer chances, even if the overall shot count stays close to that 23‑attempt mark.

Final Prediction

Arsenal’s edge lies in their superior attacking numbers, league position and recent scoring form, all underpinned by strong underlying metrics at both ends of the pitch. Brighton are organised enough to keep it tight, but their more modest chance creation suggests they may struggle to match Arsenal’s cutting edge. The key factor to watch will be whether Brighton can disrupt Arsenal’s rhythm in midfield; if they can’t, Arsenal’s sustained pressure should eventually tell.

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