Premier League 2025-2026: Brighton vs Aston Villa Prediction
Brighton
Home Team
61%
VS
Aston Villa
Away Team
19%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5:
50%
Under 2.5:
50%
Goal:
56%
No Goal:
44%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 30 |
| 2 | Man City | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 24 |
| 5 | Brighton | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Sunderland | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 22 |
| 7 | Man United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 21 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Brentford | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 19 |
| 11 | Bournemouth | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 19 |
| 12 | Tottenham | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 18 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 18 |
| 14 | Everton | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 15 | Fulham | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 17 |
| 16 | Nott'm Forest | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 12 |
| 17 | West Ham | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 11 |
| 18 | Leeds | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 11 |
| 19 | Burnley | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 | Wolves | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 28 | -21 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Brighton
- Last Match: vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Leeds (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 4)
Aston Villa
- Last Match: vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Leeds (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Bournemouth (Goals: 4 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Brighton
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.62
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.43
# Clean Sheets:
3
Aston Villa
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.69
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.53
# Clean Sheets:
3
Key Prediction Insights
In the upcoming Premier League clash, Brighton holds a strong probability of winning, with a 61% chance compared to Aston Villa's 19%. As Brighton currently sits in 5th place and Aston Villa in 4th, both teams are in the running for a coveted Champions League spot. The game is predicted to have under 2.5 goals, reflecting a 50% probability of such an outcome.
Match Analysis
Brighton enters this match with solid form, having two wins and a draw in their last three games. They secured victories against Nott'm Forest and Brentford and managed a goalless draw against Crystal Palace. Their recent performances highlight their defensive resilience, achieving three clean sheets in their last five matches. Brighton's advanced metrics show an impressive average of 2.2 goals scored per game, with a defense that concedes just 1.0 goals on average. Their expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) further affirm their balanced play.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, mirrors Brighton's recent success with three consecutive wins. They defeated Wolves, Leeds, and Bournemouth, showcasing their ability to keep clean sheets in two of these fixtures. However, Villa's offensive statistics suggest a more modest scoring rate, averaging 1.0 goal per game over the last five matches. Their xG of 0.688 indicates potential struggles in creating high-quality scoring chances, while their xGA of 1.532 suggests vulnerability in defense.
Final Prediction
Brighton's superior form and defensive solidity give them a clear edge in this encounter. Their ability to score consistently while keeping opponents at bay will be crucial. A key factor to watch is Brighton's defensive organization, which has been pivotal in their recent success and could be the deciding element in securing victory against Aston Villa.