Premier League 2025-2026: Brighton vs Bournemouth Prediction - 19 Jan 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Brighton

Home Team
57%
VS

Bournemouth

Away Team
21%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 21 15 4 2 40 14 26 49
2 Man City 21 13 4 4 45 19 26 43
3 Aston Villa 21 13 4 4 33 24 9 43
4 Liverpool 21 10 5 6 32 28 4 35
5 Brentford 21 10 3 8 35 28 7 33
6 Newcastle 21 9 5 7 32 27 5 32
7 Man United 21 8 8 5 36 32 4 32
8 Chelsea 21 8 7 6 34 24 10 31
9 Fulham 21 9 4 8 30 30 0 31
10 Sunderland 21 7 9 5 21 22 -1 30
11 Brighton 21 7 8 6 31 28 3 29
12 Everton 21 8 5 8 23 25 -2 29
13 Crystal Palace 21 7 7 7 22 23 -1 28
14 Tottenham 21 7 6 8 30 27 3 27
15 Bournemouth 21 6 8 7 34 40 -6 26
16 Leeds 21 5 7 9 29 37 -8 22
17 Nott'm Forest 21 6 3 12 21 34 -13 21
18 West Ham 21 3 5 13 22 43 -21 14
19 Burnley 21 3 4 14 22 41 -19 13
20 Wolves 21 1 4 16 15 41 -26 7

Recent Trends

Brighton D W D L D

  • Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 0)

Bournemouth W L D L D

  • Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brighton

xG (avg) 1.49
xGA (avg) 1.73
Clean Sheets 2

Bournemouth

xG (avg) 2.44
xGA (avg) 2.29
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Brighton is predicted to win their upcoming match against Bournemouth with a probability of 57.0%. The match is also expected to see more than 2.5 goals, as the likelihood for over 2.5 goals is 55.0%. Brighton currently sits at 11th place in the Premier League standings, while Bournemouth is in 15th position, indicating a potential edge for the home side.

Match Analysis

In their recent fixtures, Brighton has shown resilience, drawing against Man City and West Ham, while securing a solid victory over Burnley at home. With an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in the last five games, their form is steady. Moreover, their ability to maintain clean sheets in two out of the last five matches hints at a solid defensive setup that could challenge Bournemouth's attack. Bournemouth, on the other hand, has displayed a mixed bag of performances. They triumphed over Tottenham and managed a draw against Chelsea, but fell short against Arsenal. The Cherries have been scoring prolifically, averaging 1.8 goals per game in their last five encounters. However, their defensive frailties are evident, as they have conceded an average of 3.4 goals per game, which might be a significant factor in their upcoming clash with Brighton. With no clean sheets in the last five games, Bournemouth's defense will need to tighten up to avoid another high-scoring match.

Final Prediction

Brighton's predicted advantage stems from their stable defensive performances and ability to secure clean sheets, which contrasts with Bournemouth's defensive vulnerabilities. A key element to watch in this encounter will be how Bournemouth's high-scoring offense fares against Brighton's more disciplined defense. If Brighton can contain the Bournemouth attack, their chances of capitalizing on Bournemouth's defensive lapses increase significantly.

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