Premier League 2025-2026: Brighton vs Leeds Prediction
Brighton
Home Team
38%
VS
Leeds
Away Team
36%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5:
46%
Under 2.5:
54%
Goal:
54%
No Goal:
46%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | Tottenham | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Man City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 16 |
| 6 | Man United | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Chelsea | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 14 |
| 10 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Brentford | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Brighton | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 | Everton | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Leeds | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Burnley | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Fulham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 | Nott'm Forest | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 5 |
| 19 | West Ham | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 4 |
| 20 | Wolves | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Brighton
- Last Match: vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 4)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 2)
Leeds
- Last Match: vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Burnley (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Bournemouth (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Brighton
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.48
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.38
# Clean Sheets:
0
Leeds
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.94
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.49
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Brighton and Leeds is predicted to tilt slightly in favor of the home side, with a 38.0% probability of Brighton securing the win. Leeds follows closely with a 36.0% chance of victory, making this a potentially tight contest. The likelihood of a draw stands at 26.0%. Both teams are currently navigating the mid to lower sections of the Premier League standings, with Brighton in 13th place and Leeds just behind in 15th. The anticipated goal tally suggests a more conservative affair, with a predicted under 2.5 goals outcome.
Match Analysis
In recent performances, Brighton has shown a mixed bag of results. They recently suffered a 4-2 defeat against Man United, managed a solid 2-1 home victory over Newcastle, and drew 1-1 with Wolves on the road. Their ability to score consistently, with an average of 1.75 goals per game over the last five matches, is counterbalanced by a similar trend in conceding, averaging 1.25 goals per game. Brighton's lack of clean sheets in these matches highlights a potential vulnerability in defense.
On the other hand, Leeds has had a more turbulent run, with a recent home win against West Ham (2-1) being overshadowed by losses to Burnley (2-0) and Tottenham (2-1). Their scoring rate, averaging just 0.75 goals per game, indicates a struggle in offensive potency. Defensively, they have been more porous, conceding an average of 2.25 goals per game. Both teams' advanced metrics reveal similar challenges, with Brighton slightly edging Leeds in expected goals scored.
Final Prediction
Brighton's edge in this match comes from their slight superiority in scoring and expected goals statistics. Their recent home victory against Newcastle could serve as a confidence booster. A key factor to watch will be Brighton's ability to capitalize on their scoring opportunities while shoring up their defense to prevent Leeds from exploiting any lapses. Given the close probabilities, the match promises to be an intriguing contest between two closely matched sides.