Premier League 2025-2026: Burnley vs Arsenal Prediction
Burnley
Home Team
2%
VS
Arsenal
Away Team
96%
Draw: 2%
Over 2.5:
50%
Under 2.5:
50%
Goal:
53%
No Goal:
47%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | Tottenham | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Man City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 16 |
| 6 | Man United | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Chelsea | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 14 |
| 10 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Brentford | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Brighton | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 | Everton | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Leeds | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Burnley | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Fulham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 | Nott'm Forest | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 5 |
| 19 | West Ham | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 4 |
| 20 | Wolves | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Burnley
- Last Match: vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Leeds (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 5)
- 5th Last Match: vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 1)
Arsenal
- Last Match: vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Burnley
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.70
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.77
# Clean Sheets:
1
Arsenal
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.49
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.77
# Clean Sheets:
3
Key Prediction Insights
Arsenal is strongly favored to win against Burnley, with an overwhelming 96.0% probability of securing victory. The likelihood of Burnley pulling off an upset is a mere 2.0%, the same probability as a draw. The match is predicted to feature fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 50.0% chance of this outcome. Arsenal currently tops the Premier League standings, while Burnley is positioned lower down at 16th.
Match Analysis
In recent matches, Burnley has shown some resilience. They secured back-to-back victories against Wolves and Leeds, showcasing an ability to both score and defend effectively. However, a recent loss to Aston Villa indicates inconsistency in their performances. Burnley's ability to score, averaging 1.25 goals in their last five games, is promising, but their defensive vulnerabilities—conceding an average of 0.5 goals per game—could be a concern against a top-tier team like Arsenal.
Arsenal, on the other hand, has been in impressive form, maintaining a winning streak with victories over Crystal Palace, Fulham, and West Ham, all without conceding a goal. Their defensive solidity is highlighted by three clean sheets in their last five matches. While Arsenal has been scoring an average of 1.0 goal per game, their expected goals metric is slightly higher at 1.4925, suggesting they could capitalize on more scoring opportunities against Burnley.
Final Prediction
Arsenal's robust defensive record and their position at the summit of the Premier League give them a significant edge over Burnley. Their ability to maintain clean sheets will be a key factor in this matchup. Fans should watch out for Arsenal's defensive discipline throughout the game, as it could be pivotal in securing yet another victory and extending their lead at the top of the table.