Premier League 2026-2027: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Prediction - 25 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Crystal Palace

Home Team
34%
VS

Newcastle

Away Team
39%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 26.9
Expected Spread: -0.0

Why the Model Leans Newcastle

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Crystal Palace
Defense +5.3 Newcastle
Attack +5.1 Newcastle
Chance creation (xG data) +3.4 Newcastle
Results & dominance +3.2 Newcastle

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Newcastle. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Crystal Palace defense +6.5 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Crystal Palace attack & chance creation +2.2 Under
Form & results +0.8 Under
Newcastle defense +0.8 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 7 7 0 0 19 7 12 21
2 Arsenal 7 6 0 1 11 5 6 18
3 Brighton 7 5 1 1 23 5 18 16
4 Chelsea 7 4 1 2 17 13 4 13
5 Liverpool 7 3 3 1 9 8 1 12
6 Brentford 7 2 4 1 13 8 5 10
7 Leeds 7 2 4 1 9 6 3 10
8 Everton 7 2 4 1 8 7 1 10
9 Hull 7 2 3 2 8 7 1 9
10 Ipswich 7 3 0 4 11 15 -4 9
11 Newcastle 7 2 2 3 10 14 -4 8
12 Aston Villa 7 2 2 3 7 11 -4 8
13 Man United 7 1 4 2 10 10 0 7
14 Crystal Palace 7 2 1 4 9 17 -8 7
15 Bournemouth 7 1 3 3 9 13 -4 6
16 Tottenham 7 1 3 3 6 10 -4 6
17 Coventry 7 2 0 5 6 14 -8 6
18 Fulham 7 1 2 4 7 10 -3 5
19 Nott'm Forest 7 1 2 4 5 9 -4 5
20 Sunderland 7 1 1 5 6 14 -8 4

Recent Trends

Crystal Palace L W D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ipswich (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 3 - 2)

Newcastle L L W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Coventry (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Hull (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Crystal Palace

xG (avg) 1.37
xGA (avg) 2.79
Clean Sheets 1

Newcastle

xG (avg) 1.34
xGA (avg) 1.69
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Newcastle are the most likely winners at 39%, with Crystal Palace at 34% and a draw at 27%. The lean is toward more than 2.5 goals, at 57%.

Match Analysis

Newcastle’s slight advantage comes from stronger attacking and defensive numbers, while Crystal Palace’s home advantage keeps the contest close. Palace have conceded 2.7 goals per home match, and Newcastle have scored 1.3 per away match. Newcastle’s away goals against are higher than the chances they have allowed suggest: 2.7 conceded against 1.7 expected goals against. Recent results offer both sides reasons for concern. Palace’s latest match was a 0-5 defeat at Brighton, following a 3-1 win over Nott'm Forest and a 0-0 draw at Leeds. Newcastle have lost their last two, 0-1 to Aston Villa and 1-4 at Coventry, after beating Hull 2-1. Their defensive record makes Palace’s home scoring potential relevant, but Newcastle’s attack has the stronger numbers overall.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Crystal Palace
Goals in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Goals in last 5 matches
More than 2.5 goals is the lean at 57%. Palace’s defensive record is the strongest reason for that forecast, with Newcastle’s own defensive issues also pointing toward a more open game.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Crystal Palace
Corners in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.3 corners. Palace’s latest two matches produced 13 corners each, including five for Palace against Brighton and five against Nott'm Forest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Crystal Palace
Shots in last 5 matches
Newcastle
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 27 shots, rounded from 26.85. Recent matches have featured substantial shot counts, including 31 in Newcastle’s game with Aston Villa and 37 in Palace’s match against Nott'm Forest.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Crystal Palace wins by X goals. Negative = Newcastle wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle with expected spread of -0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin rounds to 0.0 goals, effectively level, with Newcastle fractionally favoured.

Final Prediction

Palace’s ability to turn their home scoring into goals could overturn the narrow Newcastle lean. That matters against a visiting side that has conceded 2.7 goals per away match, even though its expected goals against there are lower.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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