Premier League 2025-2026: Everton vs Leeds Prediction - 26 Jan 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Everton

Home Team
47%
VS

Leeds

Away Team
27%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 22 15 5 2 40 14 26 50
2 Man City 22 13 4 5 45 21 24 43
3 Aston Villa 22 13 4 5 33 25 8 43
4 Liverpool 22 10 6 6 33 29 4 36
5 Man United 22 9 8 5 38 32 6 35
6 Chelsea 22 9 7 6 36 24 12 34
7 Brentford 22 10 3 9 35 30 5 33
8 Newcastle 22 9 6 7 32 27 5 33
9 Sunderland 22 8 9 5 23 23 0 33
10 Everton 22 9 5 8 24 25 -1 32
11 Fulham 22 9 4 9 30 31 -1 31
12 Brighton 22 7 9 6 32 29 3 30
13 Crystal Palace 22 7 7 8 23 25 -2 28
14 Tottenham 22 7 6 9 31 29 2 27
15 Bournemouth 22 6 9 7 35 41 -6 27
16 Leeds 22 6 7 9 30 37 -7 25
17 Nott'm Forest 22 6 4 12 21 34 -13 22
18 West Ham 22 4 5 13 24 44 -20 17
19 Burnley 22 3 5 14 23 42 -19 14
20 Wolves 22 1 5 16 15 41 -26 8

Recent Trends

Everton W D L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 0 - 0)

Leeds W L D D D

  • Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Everton

xG (avg) 1.02
xGA (avg) 1.68
Clean Sheets 3

Leeds

xG (avg) 1.70
xGA (avg) 1.69
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Everton and Leeds is anticipated to be closer than it might seem at first glance, with Everton having a 47.0% probability of clinching the victory. Meanwhile, Leeds holds a 27.0% chance of upsetting the hosts, and there's a 26.0% possibility for the match to end in a draw. With Everton positioned 10th and Leeds at 16th in the Premier League standings, the predicted result leans towards a home win. Additionally, there's a 44.0% likelihood of the match featuring under 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

Both teams come into this fixture with mixed results from their last three outings. Everton recently secured a win against Aston Villa, drew with Wolves, and suffered a defeat to Brentford. Despite a resilient defensive showing that earned them three clean sheets in the past five matches, Everton's attacking prowess is somewhat limited, averaging 1.4 goals per game. Their defensive frailties are highlighted by an average concession of 2.0 goals per game, which they must address to maintain their mid-table position. Leeds, on the other hand, has shown flashes of attacking brilliance, particularly in their 3-4 loss to Newcastle. The Yorkshire outfit managed a solid home win against Fulham and held Manchester United to a draw. Leeds matches Everton in goal-scoring ability, averaging 1.4 goals in their last five games while maintaining a slightly better defensive record with 1.8 goals conceded on average. However, their expected goals metrics suggest they could convert more opportunities if they stay disciplined in their offensive execution.

Final Prediction

Everton's slight edge in the prediction stems from their home advantage and recent ability to keep clean sheets. However, Leeds' potential to convert chances could prove pivotal. Fans should keep an eye on which team's defensive setup can best absorb pressure, as it may determine the outcome of this tightly contested match.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel