Premier League 2026-2027: Hull vs Brentford Prediction - 25 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Hull

Home Team
32%
VS

Brentford

Away Team
42%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 28.6
Expected Spread: -0.3

Why the Model Leans Brentford

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Hull
Attack +12.2 Brentford
Results & dominance +4.4 Brentford
Chance creation (xG data) +2.6 Brentford
Defense +1.0 Hull

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Brentford. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Brentford defense +4.9 Over
Hull defense +3.8 Over
Form & results +3.5 Under
Hull attack & chance creation +3.0 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 7 7 0 0 19 7 12 21
2 Arsenal 7 6 0 1 11 5 6 18
3 Brighton 7 5 1 1 23 5 18 16
4 Chelsea 7 4 1 2 17 13 4 13
5 Liverpool 7 3 3 1 9 8 1 12
6 Brentford 7 2 4 1 13 8 5 10
7 Leeds 7 2 4 1 9 6 3 10
8 Everton 7 2 4 1 8 7 1 10
9 Hull 7 2 3 2 8 7 1 9
10 Ipswich 7 3 0 4 11 15 -4 9
11 Newcastle 7 2 2 3 10 14 -4 8
12 Aston Villa 7 2 2 3 7 11 -4 8
13 Man United 7 1 4 2 10 10 0 7
14 Crystal Palace 7 2 1 4 9 17 -8 7
15 Bournemouth 7 1 3 3 9 13 -4 6
16 Tottenham 7 1 3 3 6 10 -4 6
17 Coventry 7 2 0 5 6 14 -8 6
18 Fulham 7 1 2 4 7 10 -3 5
19 Nott'm Forest 7 1 2 4 5 9 -4 5
20 Sunderland 7 1 1 5 6 14 -8 4

Recent Trends

Hull L D L D D

  • Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 0)

Brentford L D W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hull

xG (avg) 1.28
xGA (avg) 2.07
Clean Sheets 1

Brentford

xG (avg) 1.23
xGA (avg) 1.85
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Brentford are the likeliest winners at 42%, with Hull at 32% and a draw at 26%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, with a 57% probability.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is a meaningful lift for Hull, and they have conceded only 0.7 goals per home game on average. But Brentford’s stronger attack is the clearest counterweight: they have scored 13 goals in seven league matches, compared with Hull’s eight, and have created more chances in the recent away data. Brentford’s latest result was a 1-2 defeat to Liverpool, following a 2-2 draw at Aston Villa and a 3-0 win over Chelsea. Hull have also struggled to turn chances into points: they had 22 shots against Newcastle but lost 1-2, then drew 2-2 with Everton before losing 0-1 at Fulham. Brentford have averaged 1.7 goals away from home despite creating 1.2 expected goals, suggesting their finishing has run ahead of their chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hull
Goals in last 5 matches
Brentford
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 is the lean at 57%. Both defences contribute to that outlook, with Brentford’s away matches bringing 1.7 goals conceded per game and Hull’s home expected goals conceded averaging 2.1.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hull
Corners in last 5 matches
Brentford
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.0 corners in total. Recent matches have shown both teams can be involved in high corner counts, including Hull’s 2-10 split at Fulham and Brentford’s 3-9 against Liverpool.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hull
Shots in last 5 matches
Brentford
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 29 shots. Hull’s 22 attempts against Newcastle and Brentford’s 21 shots conceded against Liverpool point to the potential for plenty of activity at both ends.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Hull wins by X goals. Negative = Brentford wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Hull vs Brentford with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Hull vs Brentford
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected margin is about a third of a goal in Brentford’s favour. That narrow lean reflects their stronger attack, despite Hull’s home advantage.

Final Prediction

Hull’s ability to create chances at home could upset the forecast, but Brentford’s away scoring has exceeded their chance quality so far. If that finishing cools, Hull’s home advantage may become decisive.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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