Premier League 2025-2026: Leeds vs Aston Villa Prediction
Leeds
Home Team
51%
VS
Aston Villa
Away Team
24%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5:
44%
Under 2.5:
56%
Goal:
50%
No Goal:
50%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 26 |
| 2 | Man City | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 8 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 20 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Tottenham | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 18 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Man United | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 18 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | Bournemouth | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 18 |
| 10 | Crystal Palace | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 17 |
| 11 | Brighton | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | Brentford | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 |
| 13 | Everton | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 | Newcastle | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Fulham | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | Leeds | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 11 |
| 17 | Burnley | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 10 |
| 18 | West Ham | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 10 |
| 19 | Nott'm Forest | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 9 |
| 20 | Wolves | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Leeds
- Last Match: vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 3rd Last Match: vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Burnley (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 2)
Aston Villa
- Last Match: vs Bournemouth (Goals: 4 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Leeds
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.76
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.64
# Clean Sheets:
0
Aston Villa
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.39
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Leeds and Aston Villa is predicted to result in a victory for the home side, Leeds, with a probability of 51.0%. The game is expected to have fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 44.0% chance of this occurring. Currently, Leeds sit in 16th place in the Premier League, striving to climb out of the relegation zone, while Aston Villa are in a more comfortable 6th position, vying for a spot in the Champions League.
Match Analysis
Leeds have had a rocky performance in their last three matches, managing only one win against West Ham at home, while suffering defeats to Nottingham Forest and Brighton on the road. Their recent form highlights a struggle in maintaining consistency, especially in defensive solidity, as evidenced by their failure to keep a clean sheet in their last five games. Despite this, Leeds have shown a higher expected goals tally than actual goals scored, indicating potential underperformance in attack.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, have experienced mixed outcomes, with significant victories over Bournemouth and Manchester City at home, contrasted by a defeat to Liverpool away. Their defense has been relatively solid, achieving two clean sheets in the last five games, which might bolster their confidence. However, their attacking prowess remains a concern, with a low average of 0.6 goals scored per game over the same period.
Final Prediction
Leeds have the predicted edge mainly due to their home advantage and slightly higher probability of securing a win. A key factor to watch will be Leeds' ability to convert their expected goals into actual scoring opportunities, given their recent underperformance in this area. With both teams showing defensive capabilities, the match might hinge on which side can capitalize on limited chances.