Premier League 2025-2026: Leeds vs Liverpool Prediction
Leeds
Home Team
19%
VS
Liverpool
Away Team
64%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5:
45%
Under 2.5:
55%
Goal:
51%
No Goal:
49%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 33 |
| 2 | Man City | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 28 |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 27 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Crystal Palace | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Sunderland | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 23 |
| 7 | Brighton | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Man United | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 22 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 22 |
| 10 | Everton | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 21 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 19 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 19 |
| 13 | Brentford | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 | Fulham | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 | Nott'm Forest | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 15 |
| 17 | Leeds | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 14 |
| 18 | West Ham | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
| 19 | Burnley | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 10 |
| 20 | Wolves | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 29 | -22 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Leeds
- Last Match: vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Man City (Goals: 2 - 3)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 3)
Liverpool
- Last Match: vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Leeds
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.96
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.91
# Clean Sheets:
0
Liverpool
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.98
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.00
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Leeds and Liverpool is predicted to favor the visitors, with Liverpool holding a strong 64.0% probability of securing a victory. Leeds, sitting at 17th in the Premier League standings, face a tough task as they host the 9th-placed Liverpool. The game is expected to remain under 2.5 goals, with a 45.0% probability of this outcome, suggesting a potentially tight contest.
Match Analysis
Leeds have had a mixed bag of results in their last three outings, including a notable 3-1 home victory against Chelsea. However, recent losses to Man City and Aston Villa highlight inconsistencies in their form. Leeds' key metrics show an average of 1.8 goals scored per game over the last five matches, but they have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.6 goals. Their expected goals (1.96) suggest they have been creating decent opportunities, albeit without converting them into results often enough.
Liverpool, meanwhile, are coming off a draw against Sunderland and a win against West Ham, following a disappointing home loss to Nottingham Forest. Despite scoring an average of 1.2 goals per game in recent matches, Liverpool's defense has been porous, conceding an average of 2 goals. Their expected goals figures (1.976) indicate a capacity to produce chances, yet their defensive frailties could be a concern against a Leeds side that has shown potential to score.
Final Prediction
Liverpool's higher league position and their strong probability of winning give them the edge in this encounter. The key factor to watch will be whether Liverpool can tighten their defense, as Leeds have shown they are capable of exploiting weaknesses. With both teams showing vulnerabilities at the back, the contest could hinge on which side capitalizes on their chances.