Premier League 2025-2026: Leeds vs Liverpool Prediction - 6 Dec 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Leeds

Home Team
19%
VS

Liverpool

Away Team
64%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 14 10 3 1 27 7 20 33
2 Man City 14 9 1 4 32 16 16 28
3 Aston Villa 14 8 3 3 20 14 6 27
4 Chelsea 14 7 3 4 25 15 10 24
5 Crystal Palace 14 6 5 3 18 11 7 23
6 Sunderland 14 6 5 3 18 14 4 23
7 Brighton 14 6 4 4 24 20 4 22
8 Man United 14 6 4 4 22 21 1 22
9 Liverpool 14 7 1 6 21 21 0 22
10 Everton 14 6 3 5 15 17 -2 21
11 Tottenham 14 5 4 5 23 18 5 19
12 Newcastle 14 5 4 5 19 18 1 19
13 Brentford 14 6 1 7 21 22 -1 19
14 Bournemouth 14 5 4 5 21 24 -3 19
15 Fulham 14 5 2 7 19 22 -3 17
16 Nott'm Forest 14 4 3 7 14 22 -8 15
17 Leeds 14 4 2 8 16 26 -10 14
18 West Ham 14 3 3 8 16 28 -12 12
19 Burnley 14 3 1 10 15 28 -13 10
20 Wolves 14 0 2 12 7 29 -22 2

Recent Trends

Leeds W L L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 3)

Liverpool D W L L W

  • Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leeds

xG (avg) 1.96
xGA (avg) 0.91
Clean Sheets 0

Liverpool

xG (avg) 1.98
xGA (avg) 2.00
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Leeds and Liverpool is predicted to favor the visitors, with Liverpool holding a strong 64.0% probability of securing a victory. Leeds, sitting at 17th in the Premier League standings, face a tough task as they host the 9th-placed Liverpool. The game is expected to remain under 2.5 goals, with a 45.0% probability of this outcome, suggesting a potentially tight contest.

Match Analysis

Leeds have had a mixed bag of results in their last three outings, including a notable 3-1 home victory against Chelsea. However, recent losses to Man City and Aston Villa highlight inconsistencies in their form. Leeds' key metrics show an average of 1.8 goals scored per game over the last five matches, but they have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.6 goals. Their expected goals (1.96) suggest they have been creating decent opportunities, albeit without converting them into results often enough. Liverpool, meanwhile, are coming off a draw against Sunderland and a win against West Ham, following a disappointing home loss to Nottingham Forest. Despite scoring an average of 1.2 goals per game in recent matches, Liverpool's defense has been porous, conceding an average of 2 goals. Their expected goals figures (1.976) indicate a capacity to produce chances, yet their defensive frailties could be a concern against a Leeds side that has shown potential to score.

Final Prediction

Liverpool's higher league position and their strong probability of winning give them the edge in this encounter. The key factor to watch will be whether Liverpool can tighten their defense, as Leeds have shown they are capable of exploiting weaknesses. With both teams showing vulnerabilities at the back, the contest could hinge on which side capitalizes on their chances.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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