Premier League 2025-2026: Liverpool vs Burnley Prediction
Liverpool
Home Team
95%
VS
Burnley
Away Team
2%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5:
49%
Under 2.5:
51%
Goal:
48%
No Goal:
52%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 26 | 49 |
| 2 | Man City | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 19 | 26 | 43 |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 43 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 35 |
| 5 | Brentford | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 28 | 7 | 33 |
| 6 | Newcastle | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 32 |
| 7 | Man United | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 34 | 24 | 10 | 31 |
| 9 | Fulham | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 31 |
| 10 | Sunderland | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 30 |
| 11 | Brighton | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 29 |
| 12 | Everton | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 29 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 28 |
| 14 | Tottenham | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 27 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 26 |
| 16 | Leeds | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 22 |
| 17 | Nott'm Forest | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 21 |
| 18 | West Ham | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 14 |
| 19 | Burnley | 21 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 | Wolves | 21 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 41 | -26 | 7 |
Recent Trends
Liverpool
- Last Match: vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 1)
Burnley
- Last Match: vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Liverpool
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.77
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.91
# Clean Sheets:
2
Burnley
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.01
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.36
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
Liverpool is heavily favored to win their upcoming match against Burnley, with a 95.0% probability of victory. This game is predicted to have fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 49.0% chance of this outcome. As it stands, Liverpool is in 4th place in the Premier League, while Burnley is struggling in 19th, fighting to escape relegation.
Match Analysis
In their last three matches, Liverpool has seen a string of draws, most recently against Arsenal, Fulham, and Leeds. This pattern of stalemates suggests that while they are hard to beat, their attack may not be firing on all cylinders. Nonetheless, Liverpool's advanced metrics offer some encouragement—they average 1.766 expected goals scored per game and have maintained two clean sheets in their last five matches. These figures point to a team that is creating opportunities and has a relatively solid defense.
Conversely, Burnley is in the midst of a challenging spell, with two losses and a draw in their last three games. Their recent performances include a 2-2 draw with Man United, but defeats to Brighton and Newcastle highlight their defensive vulnerabilities. Burnley averages 2.2 goals conceded per game, significantly higher than Liverpool's, and their expected goals conceded stands at 2.358. These defensive struggles are a critical factor in their league position and prospects against a top-four team like Liverpool.
Final Prediction
Liverpool's edge over Burnley primarily lies in their solid defensive record and ability to generate scoring chances, even if recent conversion has been lacking. Burnley's defensive frailties and the higher number of goals they concede further tilt the balance in Liverpool's favor. A key factor to watch during the game will be Liverpool's ability to capitalize on their scoring opportunities and break their recent cycle of draws.