Premier League 2025-2026: Liverpool vs Man City Prediction - 8 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Liverpool

Home Team
58%
VS

Man City

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 24 16 5 3 46 17 29 53
2 Man City 24 14 5 5 49 23 26 47
3 Aston Villa 24 14 4 6 35 26 9 46
4 Man United 24 11 8 5 44 36 8 41
5 Chelsea 24 11 7 6 42 27 15 40
6 Liverpool 24 11 6 7 39 33 6 39
7 Brentford 24 11 3 10 36 32 4 36
8 Sunderland 24 9 9 6 27 26 1 36
9 Fulham 24 10 4 10 34 35 -1 34
10 Everton 24 9 7 8 26 27 -1 34
11 Newcastle 24 9 6 9 33 33 0 33
12 Bournemouth 24 8 9 7 40 43 -3 33
13 Brighton 24 7 10 7 34 32 2 31
14 Tottenham 24 7 8 9 35 33 2 29
15 Crystal Palace 24 7 8 9 25 29 -4 29
16 Leeds 24 6 8 10 31 42 -11 26
17 Nott'm Forest 24 7 5 12 24 35 -11 26
18 West Ham 24 5 5 14 29 48 -19 20
19 Burnley 24 3 6 15 25 47 -22 15
20 Wolves 24 1 5 18 15 45 -30 8

Recent Trends

Liverpool W L D D D

  • Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 2)

Man City D W L D D

  • Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Liverpool

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.45
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.69
# Clean Sheets: 1

Man City

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.49
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Liverpool are favoured to win this clash with a 58.0% probability, ahead of Man City’s 21.0% chance and a 21.0% likelihood of a draw. With Liverpool currently 6th on 39 points and City 2nd on 47 points, the model still leans towards a home victory and expects goals, projecting over 2.5 goals at 57.0%. Both teams are also backed to score, with a 60.0% probability of that happening.

Match Analysis

Liverpool’s last three games show inconsistency but also attacking punch: a 4-1 home win over Newcastle, a 3-2 defeat away at Bournemouth, and a 1-1 draw at home to Burnley. Across the last five matches they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, supported by strong underlying numbers of 2.45 expected goals for and just 0.692 against. Even with only one clean sheet in that span, the defensive metrics suggest they’ve generally limited opponents’ chances well. Man City’s recent form has been mixed too: a 2-2 draw away at Tottenham, a routine 2-0 home win against struggling Wolves, and a 2-0 defeat at Man United. Over their last five, City are scoring 1.4 goals per game and conceding 1.0, with expected goals of 1.536 for and 1.486 against, pointing to tighter, more balanced contests. With only one clean sheet in that period and xG conceded almost matching xG created, they haven’t been as dominant at either end as in past seasons.

Final Prediction

Liverpool’s edge comes from their stronger recent attacking and defensive numbers, especially the gap between chances created and chances allowed. At home, that profile gives them the advantage over a City side whose underlying stats have been more evenly matched. A key factor to watch will be how often Liverpool can turn their higher expected goals into clear chances, and whether City can resist sustained pressure without conceding early.

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