Premier League 2026-2027: Sunderland vs Leeds Prediction - 25 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sunderland

Home Team
34%
VS

Leeds

Away Team
39%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 25.0
Expected Spread: -0.2

Why the Model Leans Leeds

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Sunderland
Attack +6.7 Leeds
Results & dominance +3.7 Leeds
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.7 Leeds
Chance creation (xG data) +1.9 Leeds

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Leeds. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Sunderland defense +2.6 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Sunderland attack & chance creation +1.7 Over
Leeds attack & chance creation +1.7 Under
Leeds defense +1.1 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 7 7 0 0 19 7 12 21
2 Arsenal 7 6 0 1 11 5 6 18
3 Brighton 7 5 1 1 23 5 18 16
4 Chelsea 7 4 1 2 17 13 4 13
5 Liverpool 7 3 3 1 9 8 1 12
6 Brentford 7 2 4 1 13 8 5 10
7 Leeds 7 2 4 1 9 6 3 10
8 Everton 7 2 4 1 8 7 1 10
9 Hull 7 2 3 2 8 7 1 9
10 Ipswich 7 3 0 4 11 15 -4 9
11 Newcastle 7 2 2 3 10 14 -4 8
12 Aston Villa 7 2 2 3 7 11 -4 8
13 Man United 7 1 4 2 10 10 0 7
14 Crystal Palace 7 2 1 4 9 17 -8 7
15 Bournemouth 7 1 3 3 9 13 -4 6
16 Tottenham 7 1 3 3 6 10 -4 6
17 Coventry 7 2 0 5 6 14 -8 6
18 Fulham 7 1 2 4 7 10 -3 5
19 Nott'm Forest 7 1 2 4 5 9 -4 5
20 Sunderland 7 1 1 5 6 14 -8 4

Recent Trends

Sunderland L L L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 3 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 1)

Leeds D L D W D

  • Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sunderland

xG (avg) 1.50
xGA (avg) 1.55
Clean Sheets 0

Leeds

xG (avg) 1.30
xGA (avg) 1.73
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Leeds are the likeliest winners at 39%, with Sunderland at 34% and a draw at 27%. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, at 54%.

Match Analysis

Sunderland’s home advantage gives them a meaningful route into the match, but Leeds rate better in attack and have been more consistent in their results. Leeds have scored 9 goals and conceded 6 in seven league games, while Sunderland have scored 6 and conceded 14. At home, Sunderland have created chances worth 1.5 expected goals per game but scored only 0.3, a gap that points to room for improvement in finishing. Sunderland arrive after three straight defeats: most recently 0-2 away to Bournemouth, following a 0-2 home loss to Brighton and a 3-5 defeat away to Man City. Leeds have drawn two of their last three, including the latest 1-1 with Man United and an earlier 0-0 with Crystal Palace, with a 1-2 loss to Arsenal between them. Leeds’ away scoring average is 1.0 goal per game, so Sunderland’s run of clean-sheet-free matches leaves little margin for error.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sunderland
Goals in last 5 matches
Leeds
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is a slight lean at 54%. Sunderland’s defensive record is the strongest reason for that outlook, and the scoring environment also points towards goals, although Leeds’ attack and defence pull the other way.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sunderland
Corners in last 5 matches
Leeds
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.9 corners. Sunderland’s recent matches included 12 corners against Brighton and 11 against Man City, supporting a projection around double figures.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sunderland
Shots in last 5 matches
Leeds
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 25 shots. Leeds’ last three matches each had 24 or 25 shots, while Sunderland’s latest game against Bournemouth produced 32.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sunderland wins by X goals. Negative = Leeds wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sunderland vs Leeds with expected spread of -0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sunderland vs Leeds
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.2 goals in Leeds’ favour. That slight away lean reflects the balance between Sunderland’s home advantage and Leeds’ stronger attacking and results profile.

Final Prediction

Sunderland’s best chance of changing the outlook is to turn their home chance creation into goals. Their 1.5 expected goals at home against a 0.3-goal scoring average shows the opportunity, but they will need to finish more sharply than in recent weeks.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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