Premier League 2025-2026: Sunderland vs Newcastle Prediction
Sunderland
Home Team
13%
VS
Newcastle
Away Team
74%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5:
50%
Under 2.5:
50%
Goal:
53%
No Goal:
47%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 9 | 19 | 33 |
| 2 | Man City | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 31 |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | Crystal Palace | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 26 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 25 |
| 6 | Man United | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Everton | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 24 |
| 8 | Brighton | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 23 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 23 |
| 10 | Liverpool | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 23 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 22 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 | Brentford | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 | Fulham | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
| 16 | Leeds | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 15 |
| 17 | Nott'm Forest | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 15 |
| 18 | West Ham | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 | Burnley | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 10 |
| 20 | Wolves | 15 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 33 | -25 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Sunderland
- Last Match: vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Bournemouth (Goals: 3 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Fulham (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 2)
Newcastle
- Last Match: vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Everton (Goals: 4 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Man City (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 3)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Sunderland
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.10
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.35
# Clean Sheets:
0
Newcastle
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.97
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.31
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Sunderland and Newcastle is heavily predicted in favor of the away team, with Newcastle having a winning probability of 74.0%. With both teams having similar league standings—Sunderland in 9th position and Newcastle in 12th—the match is expected to be competitive yet lean towards a Newcastle victory. The likelihood of the match having fewer than 2.5 goals is balanced at 50.0%, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair.
Match Analysis
Sunderland's recent form shows a mix of outcomes, having won, drawn, and lost one each of their last three matches. They managed a convincing 3-2 victory at home against Bournemouth but fell to a 3-0 defeat away to Manchester City. Their draw against Liverpool away, where they scored and conceded a goal, indicates resilience. Sunderland's average of 1.8 goals scored per game over the last five suggests they can find the net, but their defense has been leaky, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per match without any clean sheets.
Newcastle, on the other hand, comes into this match with a more favorable recent record, having won two of their last three games. They enjoyed a 4-1 away win against Everton and a solid 2-1 home triumph over Burnley. The draw against Tottenham, where they scored twice but also conceded twice, showcases their offensive potential. Despite scoring an average of 1.4 goals per match in their last five, Newcastle has also conceded an average of 1.8 goals, which underscores a vulnerability at the back, similar to Sunderland's defensive woes.
Final Prediction
Newcastle is favored to win due to their recent winning momentum and overall stronger performance statistics. Their ability to score multiple goals in recent matches gives them an attacking edge. A key factor to watch will be Newcastle's ability to maintain defensive solidity against a Sunderland side eager to exploit any lapses, especially in a derby known for its intense rivalry and passionate play.