Serie A 2025-2026: Atalanta vs Fiorentina Prediction
Atalanta
Home Team
82%
VS
Fiorentina
Away Team
8%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5:
46%
Under 2.5:
54%
Goal:
53%
No Goal:
47%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Milan | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Napoli | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Inter | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Bologna | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 24 |
| 6 | Como | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Juventus | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 20 |
| 8 | Lazio | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 18 |
| 9 | Sassuolo | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 17 |
| 10 | Udinese | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 15 |
| 11 | Cremonese | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 | Torino | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 13 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Parma | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Pisa | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Lecce | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 10 |
| 18 | Genoa | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 12 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Verona | 12 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 6 |
Recent Trends
Atalanta
- Last Match: vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 1)
Fiorentina
- Last Match: vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Atalanta
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.75
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.91
# Clean Sheets:
0
Fiorentina
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.01
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.62
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Atalanta and Fiorentina sees Atalanta as the clear favorite with an impressive 82.0% probability of winning. With both teams struggling to find the net recently, the game is also predicted to have fewer than 2.5 goals. Currently, Atalanta sits at 13th in Serie A, while Fiorentina is languishing in the relegation zone at 19th.
Match Analysis
Atalanta heads into this fixture on the back of a three-game losing streak, having suffered defeats against Napoli, Sassuolo, and Udinese. Their recent performances highlight a concerning trend of defensive frailties, as they conceded seven goals across these matches while only netting once. Despite these setbacks, Atalanta has shown potential in their attacking play, reflected in their average expected goals of 1.746 over the last five games, suggesting they are creating chances but struggling with finishing.
Fiorentina, on the other hand, has not fared much better, recording two draws and a loss in their last three outings. Their goalless draw against Lecce and a 2-2 stalemate with Genoa underscore their ongoing struggles in both defense and attack. Averaging just 0.6 goals per game, Fiorentina's offensive output remains a significant concern. With an expected goals conceded average of 1.622, their defense is also underperforming, making it challenging for them to secure victories.
Final Prediction
Atalanta's higher probability of winning is largely due to their ability to create scoring opportunities, as indicated by their expected goals metrics. While both teams are experiencing a rough patch, Atalanta's slightly better attacking prospects give them an edge. Key to watch will be whether Atalanta can capitalize on their chances and break their losing streak against a vulnerable Fiorentina defense.