Serie A 2025-2026: Atalanta vs Roma Prediction

Atalanta

Home Team
44%
VS

Roma

Away Team
31%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 16 12 0 4 35 14 21 36
2 Milan 16 10 5 1 27 13 14 35
3 Napoli 16 11 1 4 24 13 11 34
4 Roma 17 11 0 6 20 11 9 33
5 Juventus 17 9 5 3 23 15 8 32
6 Como 16 7 6 3 22 12 10 27
7 Bologna 16 7 5 4 24 14 10 26
8 Lazio 17 6 6 5 18 12 6 24
9 Sassuolo 17 6 4 7 22 21 1 22
10 Atalanta 17 5 7 5 20 19 1 22
11 Udinese 17 6 4 7 18 28 -10 22
12 Cremonese 17 5 6 6 18 20 -2 21
13 Torino 17 5 5 7 17 28 -11 20
14 Cagliari 17 4 6 7 19 24 -5 18
15 Parma 16 4 5 7 11 18 -7 17
16 Lecce 16 4 4 8 11 22 -11 16
17 Genoa 17 3 5 9 17 27 -10 14
18 Verona 16 2 6 8 13 25 -12 12
19 Pisa 17 1 8 8 12 24 -12 11
20 Fiorentina 17 1 6 10 17 28 -11 9

Recent Trends

Atalanta ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 0)

Roma ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Genoa (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Como (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Atalanta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.71
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.41
# Clean Sheets: 2

Roma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.53
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.09
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Atalanta and Roma sees the home team, Atalanta, favored to win with a 44.0% probability. Roma, sitting in the 4th position on the Serie A table, faces a 31.0% chance of victory. The match is predicted to yield under 2.5 goals, with a 50.0% probability supporting this outcome. Atalanta, currently in 10th place, will aim to leverage their home advantage and secure three crucial points.

Match Analysis

Atalanta's recent form shows a mixed bag, winning two out of their last three matches, including a narrow 1-0 victory away at Genoa and a 2-1 win at home against Cagliari. Their only setback came against league leaders Inter, where they suffered a close 0-1 defeat at home. What stands out is their ability to grind out results, as evidenced by the clean sheets in two of their last five games, despite averaging 1.2 goals conceded per game. Roma, on the other hand, have also experienced a seesaw of results. A solid 3-1 win against Genoa at home showcased their attacking prowess, but a subsequent 1-2 loss away at Juventus highlighted defensive vulnerabilities. Their resilience was on display in a 1-0 win over Como. Roma's advanced metrics reveal a concerning average of 2.094 expected goals conceded per game over their last five matches, indicating potential defensive frailties that Atalanta might exploit.

Final Prediction

Atalanta's home advantage could be the decisive factor, coupled with Roma's recent defensive lapses. The home side's superior probability of winning is bolstered by their ability to maintain clean sheets and capitalize on opposition errors. Keep an eye on Atalanta's defensive organization, which could prove pivotal in thwarting Roma's attacks and securing a vital victory in their push up the league standings.