Serie A 2026-2027: Atalanta vs Venezia Prediction - 12 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Atalanta

Home Team
53%
VS

Venezia

Away Team
23%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 27.8
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Atalanta

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Atalanta
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.7 Atalanta
Chance creation (xG data) +4.0 Venezia
Attack +2.5 Atalanta
Defense +1.5 Atalanta

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 70% for Atalanta. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Atalanta attack & chance creation +6.5 Under
Venezia defense +4.4 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Atalanta defense +2.1 Over
Venezia attack & chance creation +2.1 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Roma 5 4 1 0 14 3 11 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 15 8 7 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 8 3 5 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 5 2 3 12
5 Milan 5 3 2 0 10 4 6 11
6 Frosinone 5 3 1 1 9 4 5 10
7 Juventus 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
8 Como 5 3 1 1 9 6 3 10
9 Napoli 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
10 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 9 9 0 7
11 Atalanta 5 2 0 3 5 7 -2 6
12 Lecce 5 2 0 3 5 10 -5 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 8 11 -3 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
15 Parma 5 1 1 3 4 7 -3 4
16 Monza 5 1 1 3 8 12 -4 4
17 Fiorentina 5 1 1 3 6 12 -6 4
18 Bologna 5 0 2 3 3 6 -3 2
19 Genoa 5 0 1 4 3 10 -7 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 4 13 -9 0

Recent Trends

Atalanta L L L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)

Venezia L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Frosinone (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Atalanta

xG (avg) 0.86
xGA (avg) 1.75
Clean Sheets 1

Venezia

xG (avg) 1.48
xGA (avg) 2.50
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Atalanta are the likeliest winners at 53%, with a draw at 24% and a Venezia win at 23%. The lean is under 2.5 goals, at 49%, though that points to a close call rather than a strong preference.

Match Analysis

Home advantage and Atalanta’s stronger overall team record are the clearest reasons to favour the hosts. Venezia’s chance creation is a counterweight, but Atalanta have the better balance in attack and defence. Atalanta have lost their last three, including 0-2 away to Juventus, while Venezia are also on a three-game losing run after a 0-2 defeat by Lazio. The chance data gives Venezia grounds for optimism: they have averaged 1.5 expected goals in their last five, more than their 1.0 goals scored. Atalanta have averaged 0.9 expected goals while scoring 1.3, suggesting their recent returns have run ahead of their chances. That may make it harder for them to pull away if Venezia create opportunities.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
Venezia
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 is the narrow lean at 49%. Atalanta’s attack and chance creation are the strongest influence toward a lower total, while Venezia’s defensive record points the other way, with 2.5 goals conceded per match on average in their last five.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Corners in last 5 matches
Venezia
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.4 corners in total. Recent match totals have varied, but Atalanta’s games included a 15-corner match against Roma, while Venezia’s recent totals were between six and nine.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches
Venezia
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 28 shots. Recent totals show that both sides can contribute to a busy shot count, including 27 in Atalanta’s match with Cagliari and 29 in Venezia’s meeting with Fiorentina.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Atalanta wins by X goals. Negative = Venezia wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Atalanta vs Venezia with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Atalanta vs Venezia
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about half a goal in Atalanta’s favour. That reflects a modest home-side advantage, with Venezia’s ability to create chances keeping the gap narrow.

Final Prediction

Venezia’s chance creation is the clearest route to upsetting the forecast. If they turn those opportunities into goals, Atalanta’s recent run of defeats could become a bigger concern.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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