Serie A 2024-2025: Cagliari vs Fiorentina Prediction - 23 Apr 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Cagliari

Home Team
29%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
49%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 33 21 8 4 72 32 40 71
2 Napoli 33 21 8 4 52 25 27 71
3 Atalanta 33 19 7 7 66 30 36 64
4 Bologna 33 16 12 5 52 37 15 60
5 Juventus 32 15 14 3 49 30 19 59
6 Roma 33 16 9 8 48 32 16 57
7 Lazio 32 16 8 8 53 43 10 56
8 Fiorentina 32 15 8 9 49 32 17 53
9 Milan 33 14 9 10 51 38 13 51
10 Torino 32 9 13 10 36 37 -1 40
11 Udinese 32 11 7 14 36 46 -10 40
12 Genoa 32 9 12 11 29 38 -9 39
13 Como 33 10 9 14 43 48 -5 39
14 Verona 33 9 5 19 30 60 -30 32
15 Cagliari 32 7 9 16 32 47 -15 30
16 Parma 32 5 13 14 37 51 -14 28
17 Lecce 33 6 8 19 23 55 -32 26
18 Venezia 33 4 13 16 27 46 -19 25
19 Empoli 33 4 13 16 26 52 -26 25
20 Monza 33 2 9 22 25 57 -32 15

Recent Trends

Cagliari L D W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Empoli (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Monza (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 1)

Fiorentina D D W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cagliari

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.27
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.54
# Clean Sheets: 2

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.50
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.89
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Cagliari and Fiorentina is predicted to favor Fiorentina with a 49.0% probability of an away victory. Cagliari, on the other hand, has a 29.0% chance of securing a home win, while a draw holds a 22.0% probability. The encounter is expected to feature fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 43.0% probability for this outcome. In the current Serie A standings, Fiorentina sits 8th with 53 points while Cagliari is positioned 15th with 30 points, fighting to avoid relegation.

Match Analysis

Cagliari's recent performances have been a mixed bag, starting with a tough 3-1 away defeat to league leaders Inter. They bounced back with a goalless draw against Empoli and a confident 3-0 home victory over Monza. Despite their resilience, Cagliari's average of 1.4 goals scored against 1.0 conceded in the last five matches indicates a struggle to maintain consistency. Their expected goals statistics further highlight this, as they have been scoring slightly less than anticipated while conceding more. Fiorentina, meanwhile, have shown solidity in their recent outings. They managed a 0-0 draw against Parma, a thrilling 2-2 away draw at Milan, and a crucial 1-0 victory over Atalanta. With an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game in the last five matches, Fiorentina has demonstrated both scoring potential and defensive lapses. However, their three clean sheets in recent games showcase their ability to tighten up at the back when needed.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina's edge in this matchup stems from their higher league position and recent form, including a notable win against a strong Atalanta side. A key factor to watch during the game will be Fiorentina's ability to capitalize on their scoring opportunities while maintaining defensive discipline, something that has given them the upper hand in recent matches. Cagliari will need to leverage their home advantage and focus on converting their chances if they wish to challenge Fiorentina's dominance.

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