Serie A 2025-2026: Cremonese vs Lazio Prediction - 4 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cremonese

Home Team
30%
VS

Lazio

Away Team
45%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.4
Expected Spread: -0.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 34 25 4 5 80 31 49 79
2 Napoli 34 21 6 7 52 33 19 69
3 Milan 34 19 10 5 48 27 21 67
4 Juventus 34 18 10 6 57 29 28 64
5 Como 34 17 10 7 59 28 31 61
6 Roma 34 19 4 11 48 29 19 61
7 Atalanta 34 14 12 8 47 32 15 54
8 Lazio 34 12 12 10 37 33 4 48
9 Bologna 34 14 6 14 42 41 1 48
10 Sassuolo 34 13 7 14 41 44 -3 46
11 Udinese 34 12 8 14 41 46 -5 44
12 Parma 34 10 12 12 25 40 -15 42
13 Torino 34 11 8 15 39 56 -17 41
14 Genoa 34 10 9 15 40 48 -8 39
15 Fiorentina 34 8 13 13 38 45 -7 37
16 Cagliari 34 9 9 16 36 49 -13 36
17 Lecce 34 7 8 19 22 46 -24 29
18 Cremonese 34 6 10 18 26 51 -25 28
19 Verona 34 3 10 21 23 56 -33 19
20 Pisa 34 2 12 20 24 61 -37 18

Recent Trends

Cremonese L D L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 0)

Lazio D W L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cremonese

xG (avg) 1.24
xGA (avg) 1.62
Clean Sheets 2

Lazio

xG (avg) 1.63
xGA (avg) 0.82
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lazio are slight favourites here, with a 45.0% chance of victory compared to Cremonese’s 30.0% and a 25.0% probability of a draw. Sitting 8th on 48 points, Lazio are chasing European spots, while 18th‑placed Cremonese are fighting to escape the drop, which adds extra tension. The model points to a tight, low-scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 57.0% and Lazio expected to edge it.

Match Analysis

Cremonese come into this on a worrying run: a 0-4 thrashing at Napoli, a goalless home draw with Torino, and a 0-1 defeat at Cagliari. They’ve failed to score in all three, and their last five games show just 0.4 goals scored on average against 1.6 conceded. The underlying numbers are slightly kinder – 1.238 expected goals (xG) for and 1.622 xG against – plus two clean sheets in that span, suggesting a team that occasionally defends well but struggles badly in the final third. Lazio’s form is steadier, if not spectacular. A chaotic 3-3 draw with Udinese, a controlled 2-0 win away at Napoli, and a narrow 0-1 loss at Fiorentina underline how tight their matches tend to be. Over the last five, they average only 0.8 goals scored but just 0.6 conceded, with two clean sheets. Crucially, Lazio’s xG figures – 1.634 for and only 0.82 against – show they’re creating the better chances and limiting opponents, fitting a side that is more solid than free‑scoring.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cremonese
Goals in last 5 matches
Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 57.0% probability, making “under 2.5” the clearest call for bettors looking at an over 2.5 prediction versus the alternative. All three of Cremonese’s recent matches finished under 2.5 goals (0-4, 0-0, 0-1 total goals), reflecting their lack of cutting edge. Lazio’s last three were more mixed: two under 2.5 (2-0, 0-1) and one wild over (3-3), but their averages – 0.8 scored, 0.6 conceded, with xG of 1.634 for and 0.82 against – still point to a cagey, controlled game rather than a shoot‑out.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cremonese
Corners in last 5 matches
Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.45, suggesting a fairly typical Serie A contest in terms of set‑piece volume. Cremonese’s last three saw 12, 7 and 11 corners, as they often end up defending and forcing opponents wide. Lazio’s series of 9, 12 and 11 corners – even in games where they weren’t constantly attacking – backs up a balanced corners prediction, with both sides likely to win a handful from patient build‑up rather than relentless wing play.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cremonese
Shots in last 5 matches
Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure stands at 24.44, hinting at a game with a decent number of attempts but not a barrage. Cremonese’s recent shot counts (7, 14, 5 for; 25, 4, 17 against) show they often get out‑shot, especially away from home. Lazio have been more consistent, taking 13, 14 and 13 shots while allowing 16, 12 and 8; that fits an expected shots and shots prediction where the visitors generate slightly more and better chances, in line with their stronger xG profile.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cremonese wins by X goals. Negative = Lazio wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cremonese vs Lazio with expected spread of -0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cremonese vs Lazio
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at -0.65 (home minus away), meaning the expected spread favours Lazio by roughly two‑thirds of a goal. Over the last three, Cremonese’s goal difference is -5 (0-4, 0-0, 0-1), while Lazio’s is level (3-3, 2-0, 0-1), underscoring the away side’s greater stability. Combined with a 45.0% win probability for Lazio versus 30.0% for Cremonese, the expected spread reflects the visitors’ edge in both attack and defence.

Final Prediction

Lazio’s superior league position, stronger chance creation and tighter defence give them the advantage, even if they’re not scoring freely. Cremonese’s lack of goals and recent heavy defeat make their task daunting. The key factor to watch will be whether Cremonese can turn their xG into actual goals; if they can’t, Lazio’s control and organisation should be enough to grind out a narrow away win.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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