Serie A 2025-2026: Cremonese vs Torino Prediction - 19 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Cremonese

Home Team
27%
VS

Torino

Away Team
50%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 25.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 32 24 3 5 75 29 46 75
2 Napoli 32 20 6 6 48 31 17 66
3 Milan 32 18 9 5 47 27 20 63
4 Juventus 32 17 9 6 55 29 26 60
5 Como 32 16 10 6 56 26 30 58
6 Roma 32 18 3 11 45 28 17 57
7 Atalanta 32 14 11 7 44 28 16 53
8 Bologna 32 14 6 12 42 37 5 48
9 Lazio 32 11 11 10 32 30 2 44
10 Udinese 32 12 7 13 38 42 -4 43
11 Sassuolo 32 12 6 14 39 43 -4 42
12 Torino 32 11 6 15 37 54 -17 39
13 Genoa 32 9 9 14 38 45 -7 36
14 Parma 32 8 12 12 23 40 -17 36
15 Fiorentina 32 8 11 13 37 44 -7 35
16 Cagliari 32 8 9 15 33 44 -11 33
17 Cremonese 32 6 9 17 26 47 -21 27
18 Lecce 32 7 6 19 21 45 -24 27
19 Verona 32 3 9 20 23 55 -32 18
20 Pisa 32 2 12 18 23 58 -35 18

Recent Trends

Cremonese L L W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 2)

Torino W W L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cremonese

xG (avg) 1.16
xGA (avg) 2.03
Clean Sheets 1

Torino

xG (avg) 1.27
xGA (avg) 1.48
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Torino are favoured to take all three points, with a 50.0% probability of an away win against a Cremonese side given just a 27.0% chance at home (draw at 23.0%). The model leans towards a tight contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a fairly balanced 49.0% probability for over 2.5 goals. In the table, Torino sit 12th on 39 points, while Cremonese are 17th on 27 points and right on the edge of the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Cremonese come into this under pressure after two defeats in their last three matches. They lost narrowly at Cagliari (0-1) and at home to Bologna (1-2), either side of a precious 2-0 away win at Parma. That run underlines their inconsistency: only three goals scored in those three games, and just one clean sheet. The broader numbers are worrying too – an average of 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over the last five matches, with xG at 1.162 for and 2.026 against. They are creating something, but not enough, and are regularly allowing better chances at the other end. Torino, meanwhile, arrive with momentum after back-to-back wins against Pisa (1-0 away) and Verona (2-1 at home), following a spirited 3-2 defeat at Milan. Seven goals across those three matches suggest a team more dangerous in attack than their season-long goal difference implies. Over their last five, they average 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with expected goals at 1.266 for and 1.48 against – slightly more balanced than Cremonese, and with a marginal defensive edge in terms of quality of chances allowed.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cremonese
Goals in last 5 matches
Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points towards under 2.5, even though the over 2.5 prediction carries a competitive 49.0% probability. Two of Cremonese’s last three games stayed under 2.5 total goals (0-1 vs Cagliari, 2-0 vs Parma), with only the 1-2 loss to Bologna going over. Torino have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (2-3 at Milan, 2-1 vs Verona) and one under (1-0 at Pisa), but both teams’ recent averages – Cremonese at 0.4 scored/2.0 conceded, Torino at 1.2 scored/2.0 conceded – plus relatively modest xG figures, suggest a cautious, low-scoring encounter is slightly more likely.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cremonese
Corners in last 5 matches
Torino
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.28, putting the corners prediction in the mid-range rather than expecting a barrage of set-piece situations. Cremonese’s last three have produced 5, 6 and 4 corners for them and their opponents combined from their side (5-6, 2-4, 1-3), while Torino’s games have seen 9, 3 and 10 total corners (3-6, 2-1, 6-4). Both teams can force corners when chasing, but their generally cautious, mid-table-to-bottom-half styles point more toward steady rather than extreme numbers.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cremonese
Shots in last 5 matches
Torino
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.3, a figure that fits with the shots prediction of a competitive match without turning into a shooting gallery. Cremonese’s last three show 5, 9 and 7 attempts of their own (with 17, 14 and 8 faced), while Torino have registered 11, 13 and 19 shots (facing 18, 7 and 15). Those numbers align with their xG: Torino tend to generate slightly more efforts and better chances, which supports the idea of them edging the shot count even if the overall expected shots stay moderate.

Final Prediction

Torino’s superior league position, slightly stronger attacking output, and recent back-to-back wins give them a clear edge over a fragile Cremonese side still fighting to avoid the drop. If Torino can translate their xG advantage and higher shot volume into ruthlessness in the box, they should justify their status as favourites. The key factor to watch will be whether Cremonese can tighten up defensively enough to drag the game into the kind of low-scoring battle that keeps their survival hopes alive.

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