Serie A 2024-2025: Fiorentina vs Juventus Prediction - 16 Mar 2025
Result | Under-Over 2.5
Fiorentina
Home Team
20%
VS
Juventus
Away Team
63%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5:
42%
Under 2.5:
58%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 61 |
| 2 | Napoli | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 60 |
| 3 | Atalanta | 28 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Juventus | 28 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 45 | 25 | 20 | 52 |
| 5 | Lazio | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 50 | 36 | 14 | 51 |
| 6 | Bologna | 28 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 50 |
| 7 | Roma | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 46 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 45 |
| 9 | Milan | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 42 | 32 | 10 | 44 |
| 10 | Udinese | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 40 |
| 11 | Torino | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 35 |
| 12 | Genoa | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 32 |
| 13 | Como | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 29 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 28 | 43 | -15 | 26 |
| 15 | Verona | 28 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 28 | 58 | -30 | 26 |
| 16 | Lecce | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 20 | 46 | -26 | 25 |
| 17 | Parma | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 24 |
| 18 | Empoli | 28 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 22 |
| 19 | Venezia | 28 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 23 | 42 | -19 | 19 |
| 20 | Monza | 28 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 23 | 48 | -25 | 14 |
Recent Trends
Fiorentina
- Last Match: vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Como (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 2)
Juventus
- Last Match: vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 4)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Fiorentina
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.09
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.02
# Clean Sheets:
1
Juventus
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.56
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.10
# Clean Sheets:
3
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming match between Fiorentina and Juventus is predicted to swing in favor of the visitors, with Juventus having a 63.0% probability of winning. This prediction aligns with Juventus's superior league standing, currently ranked 4th in Serie A, compared to Fiorentina's 8th position. Additionally, the match is expected to feature fewer than 2.5 goals, as indicated by a 42.0% probability for over 2.5 goals.
Match Analysis
Fiorentina's recent form has been inconsistent, as evidenced by their performance in the last three matches. They managed a narrow 1-0 victory against Lecce at home but suffered defeats against Napoli and Verona, scoring only once in those losses. Fiorentina’s average of 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded over the last five games suggests a relatively balanced performance, albeit with room for improvement in defense, given they have only kept one clean sheet.
Juventus, on the other hand, comes into the fixture with a more favorable recent record, securing wins against Verona and Cagliari, while experiencing a heavy defeat to Atalanta. The team’s ability to keep clean sheets in three of their last five matches highlights their defensive solidity. With an average of 1.2 goals scored, Juventus's attacking prowess may not be overwhelming, but their higher expected goals (1.558) indicate potential for more significant offensive output.
Final Prediction
Juventus holds the edge in this matchup, primarily due to their robust defensive performance and higher league standing, which points to a more consistent season overall. A key factor to watch during the game will be Juventus's ability to convert their expected goals into actual goals, as this could be the determining factor in overcoming a resilient Fiorentina side.
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