Serie A 2025-2026: Fiorentina vs Verona Prediction
Fiorentina
Home Team
42%
VS
Verona
Away Team
31%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5:
49%
Under 2.5:
51%
Goal:
53%
No Goal:
47%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milan | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Napoli | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 31 |
| 3 | Inter | 14 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 13 | 19 | 30 |
| 4 | Roma | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 27 |
| 5 | Bologna | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 25 |
| 6 | Como | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 24 |
| 7 | Juventus | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 23 |
| 8 | Sassuolo | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 20 |
| 9 | Cremonese | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 20 |
| 10 | Lazio | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Udinese | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 18 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 |
| 13 | Cagliari | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 | Genoa | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 14 |
| 15 | Parma | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 | Torino | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 14 |
| 17 | Lecce | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 13 |
| 18 | Pisa | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 | Verona | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 |
| 20 | Fiorentina | 14 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 6 |
Recent Trends
Fiorentina
- Last Match: vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 1)
Verona
- Last Match: vs Atalanta (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Fiorentina
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.49
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.44
# Clean Sheets:
0
Verona
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.60
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.17
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Fiorentina and Verona is predicted to have Fiorentina as the likely winner, with a 42.0% probability of securing victory. Verona, on the other hand, has a 31.0% chance of coming away with the win, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 27.0%. The game is expected to feature fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 49.0% probability. Currently, both teams are struggling at the bottom of the Serie A standings, with Verona in 19th place and Fiorentina in 20th.
Match Analysis
Both Fiorentina and Verona have had challenging recent performances. Fiorentina has failed to win any of their last three matches, with two losses against Sassuolo and Atalanta, and a draw at home to Juventus. The team has shown some attacking potential, averaging 1.0 goals per game in their last five, but their defense has been a concern, conceding an average of 1.6 goals. Expected goals metrics suggest they have been somewhat unlucky, scoring less than their expected 1.494 goals per game.
Verona, meanwhile, has managed to secure a victory in their last three matches, with a notable 3-1 win against Atalanta. However, they have since suffered two defeats against Genoa and Parma. Verona's goal-scoring form has been less prolific, with an average of only 0.4 goals per game, but their expected goals suggest they have underperformed, with an average of 1.6 expected goals. Defensively, they have been slightly more solid than Fiorentina, with an average of 1.4 goals conceded per game.
Final Prediction
Fiorentina is predicted to edge out Verona in this encounter, primarily due to their slightly better attacking statistics and the home advantage. A key factor to watch will be whether Fiorentina can capitalize on their expected goal opportunities and tighten up defensively to avoid conceding. Both teams are desperate for points to climb out of the relegation zone, making this a crucial fixture in the context of their season.