Serie A 2026-2027: Frosinone vs Sassuolo Prediction - 16 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Frosinone

Home Team
32%
VS

Sassuolo

Away Team
41%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 69%
No Goal: 31%
Expected Corners: 11.1
Expected Shots: 30.4
Expected Spread: -0.2

Why the Model Leans Sassuolo

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Frosinone
Chance creation (xG data) +7.9 Sassuolo
Attack +7.3 Sassuolo
Results & dominance +2.7 Sassuolo
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.4 Frosinone

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Sassuolo. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Frosinone defense +5.3 Over
Frosinone attack & chance creation +3.1 Over
Form & results +2.6 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Sassuolo attack & chance creation +1.5 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 6 5 1 0 18 8 10 16
2 Lazio 6 5 1 0 11 4 7 16
3 Roma 6 4 2 0 14 3 11 14
4 Cagliari 6 4 1 1 6 3 3 13
5 Milan 6 3 3 0 11 5 6 12
6 Juventus 6 3 2 1 9 5 4 11
7 Como 6 3 2 1 9 6 3 11
8 Napoli 6 3 1 2 10 6 4 10
9 Frosinone 6 3 1 2 9 7 2 10
10 Atalanta 6 3 0 3 8 8 0 9
11 Sassuolo 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
12 Torino 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
13 Lecce 6 2 0 4 6 12 -6 6
14 Bologna 6 1 2 3 5 7 -2 5
15 Udinese 6 1 1 4 9 13 -4 4
16 Monza 6 1 1 4 9 15 -6 4
17 Genoa 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
18 Parma 6 1 1 4 4 10 -6 4
19 Fiorentina 6 1 1 4 7 14 -7 4
20 Venezia 6 0 0 6 5 16 -11 0

Recent Trends

Frosinone L W D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 3 - 0)

Sassuolo D L W D W

  • Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Monza (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Frosinone

xG (avg) 1.47
xGA (avg) 2.45
Clean Sheets 2

Sassuolo

xG (avg) 2.27
xGA (avg) 1.85
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Sassuolo are the most likely winners at 41%, with a draw at 27% and a Frosinone win at 32%. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, with a 61% probability.

Match Analysis

Frosinone's home advantage gives them a platform, but Sassuolo's stronger chance creation and attack are the main counterweight. Sassuolo have averaged 2.3 expected goals away from home while scoring 1.3 goals, a gap that suggests their opportunities have not fully translated into goals. Their latest match was a 1-1 draw with Milan, while Frosinone most recently lost 0-3 away to Napoli. Frosinone have kept two clean sheets in their last five matches, but Sassuolo have kept none, leaving both defences with questions to answer. Sassuolo's 3-2 win over Juventus came before a 1-2 loss at Monza and their latest draw with Milan, showing the attacking threat and inconsistency that could shape this match. Frosinone will need to make home advantage count while limiting the chances Sassuolo create.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Frosinone
Goals in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
The 61% lean is toward over 2.5 goals, chiefly because Frosinone's defensive profile points to exposure. Frosinone's attack and Sassuolo's chance creation also support a higher-scoring game, although recent results provide some counterweight.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Frosinone
Corners in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 11.1 corners in total. Recent match totals include 15 for Frosinone against Como and 13 for Sassuolo against Juventus, suggesting there is scope for a busy count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Frosinone
Shots in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 30 shots. Frosinone's last three matches produced 36, 49 and 43 combined attempts, though Sassuolo's latest match against Milan had 21.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Frosinone wins by X goals. Negative = Sassuolo wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Frosinone vs Sassuolo with expected spread of -0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Frosinone vs Sassuolo
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.3 of a goal in Sassuolo's favour, a narrow away lean rather than a strong separation.

Final Prediction

The forecast could turn if Sassuolo convert their away chances more efficiently than they have so far. That would test Frosinone's defence and make their home advantage harder to translate into a result.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel