Serie A 2025-2026: Genoa vs Atalanta Prediction
Genoa
Home Team
11%
VS
Atalanta
Away Team
78%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5:
48%
Under 2.5:
52%
Goal:
52%
No Goal:
48%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 15 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 14 | 20 | 33 |
| 2 | Milan | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 32 |
| 3 | Napoli | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 31 |
| 4 | Roma | 15 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 30 |
| 5 | Juventus | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 26 |
| 6 | Bologna | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 25 |
| 7 | Como | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 24 |
| 8 | Lazio | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 22 |
| 9 | Sassuolo | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 21 |
| 10 | Udinese | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 21 |
| 11 | Cremonese | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 20 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 19 |
| 13 | Torino | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 17 |
| 14 | Lecce | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 | Cagliari | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 | Genoa | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 14 |
| 17 | Parma | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 14 |
| 18 | Verona | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 12 |
| 19 | Pisa | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 10 |
| 20 | Fiorentina | 15 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 6 |
Recent Trends
Genoa
- Last Match: vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Cagliari (Goals: 3 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 2)
Atalanta
- Last Match: vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 3)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Genoa
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.52
# Clean Sheets:
0
Atalanta
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.08
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.43
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
With a commanding 78% probability of winning, Atalanta is predicted to secure victory over Genoa. The game is likely to see under 2.5 goals scored, given the 48% probability for this outcome. Currently, Atalanta sits in 12th place in Serie A, while Genoa is positioned even lower in 16th place, which further supports the predicted outcome of the match.
Match Analysis
In recent matches, Genoa has shown signs of resilience, securing two wins against Udinese and Verona after a narrow home loss to league leaders Inter. Their ability to score in all three of their last matches, although modestly, reflects a slight upward trend in performance. Advanced metrics indicate Genoa has been scoring an average of 1.0 goal per game while conceding 1.4, with no clean sheets in their last five games, underscoring defensive vulnerabilities.
Atalanta, on the other hand, has had a mixed bag of results, with a crucial away victory over Cagliari and a significant home win against Fiorentina, bookending a disappointing away loss to Verona. Despite their lukewarm performance, scoring an average of 0.8 goals while conceding 1.8 per game, their advanced metrics suggest they are capable of creating more goal-scoring opportunities than they currently capitalize on. Atalanta's ability to maintain a clean sheet against Fiorentina, albeit a struggling team, might offer them some confidence going into this match.
Final Prediction
Atalanta's higher probability of winning is bolstered by their more consistent performance in the league and slightly better goal metrics. Their capacity to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity, as evidenced in their clean sheet against Fiorentina, will be crucial. A key factor to watch will be whether Atalanta can exploit Genoa's defensive weaknesses, especially given Genoa's struggle to keep clean sheets in recent games.