Serie A 2025-2026: Genoa vs Cagliari Prediction
Genoa
Home Team
46%
VS
Cagliari
Away Team
29%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5:
48%
Under 2.5:
52%
Goal:
52%
No Goal:
48%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 18 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 40 | 15 | 25 | 42 |
| 2 | Milan | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 39 |
| 3 | Napoli | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 38 |
| 4 | Juventus | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 36 |
| 5 | Roma | 19 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 36 |
| 6 | Como | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 33 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 28 |
| 8 | Bologna | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 26 |
| 9 | Lazio | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 25 |
| 10 | Udinese | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 23 |
| 12 | Torino | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 23 |
| 13 | Cremonese | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 19 |
| 15 | Parma | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 18 |
| 16 | Lecce | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 17 |
| 17 | Genoa | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 16 |
| 18 | Verona | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 13 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 19 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 13 |
| 20 | Pisa | 19 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 28 | -15 | 12 |
Recent Trends
Genoa
- Last Match: vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 2)
Cagliari
- Last Match: vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Genoa
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.14
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.86
# Clean Sheets:
0
Cagliari
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.97
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.08
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming match between Genoa and Cagliari is predicted to end in favor of the home team, Genoa, with a 46.0% probability of winning. The likelihood of an away victory for Cagliari stands at 29.0%, while there's a 25.0% chance of a draw. Both teams are currently struggling in the lower regions of the Serie A standings, with Genoa in 17th position and Cagliari slightly better off in 14th. The game is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with a predicted outcome of under 2.5 goals.
Match Analysis
Genoa's recent performances have been marked by a string of challenging fixtures, resulting in a draw against Milan (1-1) and Pisa (1-1), and a loss to Roma (3-1). This indicates a consistent ability to score, though they have struggled to secure wins. Cagliari's recent form includes a victory over Torino (2-1), a draw with Cremonese (2-2), and a narrow defeat against Milan (1-0), demonstrating a slightly more resilient form compared to Genoa.
Analyzing the advanced metrics, both teams show similar patterns in terms of goal-scoring and conceding. Genoa has averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded in their last five games, while Cagliari mirrors this with the same averages. However, Cagliari's expected goals conceded (2.076) is notably higher than Genoa's (1.86), suggesting potential defensive vulnerabilities that Genoa could exploit. Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches, highlighting defensive frailties.
Final Prediction
Genoa is favored to win primarily due to their home advantage and Cagliari's recent defensive lapses. These defensive issues, coupled with Genoa's slightly better expected goals statistics, give them a slight edge. A key factor to watch during the game will be how each team manages their defensive organization, as both have struggled to maintain clean sheets in recent outings.