Serie A 2026-2027: Genoa vs Fiorentina Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Genoa

Home Team
34%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
39%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 27.1
Expected Spread: -0.0

Why the Model Leans Fiorentina

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Genoa
Attack +5.8 Fiorentina
Chance creation (xG data) +5.2 Fiorentina
Defense +2.8 Fiorentina
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.7 Genoa

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Fiorentina. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Genoa defense +5.1 Over
Genoa attack & chance creation +3.4 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Fiorentina defense +1.7 Over
Fiorentina attack & chance creation +1.3 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Roma 5 4 1 0 14 3 11 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 15 8 7 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 8 3 5 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 5 2 3 12
5 Milan 5 3 2 0 10 4 6 11
6 Frosinone 5 3 1 1 9 4 5 10
7 Juventus 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
8 Como 5 3 1 1 9 6 3 10
9 Napoli 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
10 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 9 9 0 7
11 Atalanta 5 2 0 3 5 7 -2 6
12 Lecce 5 2 0 3 5 10 -5 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 8 11 -3 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
15 Parma 5 1 1 3 4 7 -3 4
16 Monza 5 1 1 3 8 12 -4 4
17 Fiorentina 5 1 1 3 6 12 -6 4
18 Bologna 5 0 2 3 3 6 -3 2
19 Genoa 5 0 1 4 3 10 -7 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 4 13 -9 0

Recent Trends

Genoa L D L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Frosinone (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 2)

Fiorentina D W L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Frosinone (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Genoa

xG (avg) 1.09
xGA (avg) 1.64
Clean Sheets 0

Fiorentina

xG (avg) 1.71
xGA (avg) 2.40
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Fiorentina are the most likely winners at 39%, ahead of Genoa at 34%, with the draw at 27%. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, with a 57% probability.

Match Analysis

Fiorentina’s stronger attacking output and chance creation are the main reasons they shade the result, despite Genoa having home advantage. Fiorentina have averaged 1.7 expected goals in their last five, compared with 1.1 for Genoa, and have scored more often. Their recent 4-2 win away to Venezia showed their ability to turn chances into goals, though they also lost 2-1 to Torino. Genoa’s 1-4 defeat to Como is a warning sign for a side that has conceded 2.3 goals per game over its last five and kept no clean sheets in that span. Yet Genoa have scored less than their chances suggest, averaging 0.7 goals from 1.1 expected goals. If their finishing improves, home advantage could matter more than Fiorentina’s modest statistical lead.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 57%. Genoa’s defensive record is the clearest reason to expect goals, while Fiorentina have also conceded freely, with 3.0 goals against per game over their last five and no clean sheets.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected total is 10.1 corners. Recent matches offer mixed signals, but Genoa had eight corners against Frosinone, while Fiorentina’s recent games included a combined nine corners against Napoli and eight against Torino.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 27 shots. Genoa and Fiorentina have both produced high shot counts in recent matches, including 17 apiece for Genoa against Frosinone and Fiorentina against Napoli.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Genoa wins by X goals. Negative = Fiorentina wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Genoa vs Fiorentina with expected spread of -0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Genoa vs Fiorentina
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin rounds to 0.0, essentially level, despite Fiorentina’s narrow advantage in the win probabilities.

Final Prediction

Genoa’s ability to convert a greater share of its chances could overturn the forecast. The home side has scored below its recent expected-goal level, so sharper finishing would make Fiorentina’s defensive weaknesses costly.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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