Serie A 2026-2027: Genoa vs Juventus Prediction - 28 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Genoa

Home Team
17%
VS

Juventus

Away Team
65%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 25.9
Expected Spread: -0.9

Why the Model Leans Juventus

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Chance creation (xG data) +15.1 Juventus
Home advantage +12.9 Genoa
Defense +11.2 Juventus
Attack +7.3 Juventus
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.1 Juventus

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 79% for Juventus. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Genoa defense +5.2 Over
Genoa attack & chance creation +4.7 Under
Juventus attack & chance creation +4.2 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Juventus defense +0.7 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 8 7 1 0 23 10 13 22
2 Lazio 8 7 1 0 16 5 11 22
3 Roma 8 5 3 0 19 6 13 18
4 Milan 8 5 3 0 16 7 9 18
5 Como 8 5 2 1 14 7 7 17
6 Frosinone 8 4 2 2 17 13 4 14
7 Juventus 8 4 2 2 11 8 3 14
8 Torino 8 4 1 3 13 11 2 13
9 Cagliari 8 4 1 3 6 9 -3 13
10 Napoli 8 3 2 3 13 10 3 11
11 Atalanta 8 3 1 4 14 15 -1 10
12 Lecce 8 3 0 5 9 14 -5 9
13 Bologna 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
14 Sassuolo 8 2 2 4 12 16 -4 8
15 Monza 8 2 1 5 15 18 -3 7
16 Genoa 8 2 1 5 6 13 -7 7
17 Udinese 8 1 1 6 9 18 -9 4
18 Fiorentina 8 1 1 6 9 19 -10 4
19 Parma 8 1 1 6 5 15 -10 4
20 Venezia 8 1 0 7 6 17 -11 3

Recent Trends

Genoa W L W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Frosinone (Goals: 1 - 1)

Juventus W L D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Genoa

xG (avg) 1.07
xGA (avg) 1.47
Clean Sheets 1

Juventus

xG (avg) 1.75
xGA (avg) 0.73
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Juventus are favoured to win at 65%, with a draw at 18% and a Genoa victory at 17%. The lean is towards over 2.5 goals, with a 57% probability.

Match Analysis

Juventus’ stronger chance creation and defending are central to their advantage. Away from home, they average 1.7 expected goals created and 0.7 expected goals conceded, while Genoa have averaged 1.0 goal per home match and conceded 1.6. Genoa’s home advantage is a counterweight, but they will need to make their opportunities count against a defence that has kept two clean sheets in its last five matches. Both teams won their latest games. Genoa beat Venezia 1-0 after losing 0-2 at Roma, while Juventus followed a 0-3 defeat to Lazio with a 2-0 away win over Lecce. Juventus’ recent away form and better defensive numbers give them the clearer route to control, though their 1-1 draw at Cagliari came in a match where they were outshot 22-4.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the slight lean at 57%. Genoa’s defensive record at home and Juventus’ away chance creation both point towards scoring opportunities, although Genoa’s attack has been a restraint on the total.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches
Juventus
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.3 corners in total. Genoa’s latest match produced 12, with Venezia taking 10, while Juventus’ latest had eight, so the forecast allows for a more moderate count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches
Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is about 26 shots. In their latest matches, opponents managed 19 shots against Genoa and 16 against Juventus, suggesting both could face pressure in their defensive thirds.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Genoa wins by X goals. Negative = Juventus wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Genoa vs Juventus with expected spread of -0.9
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Genoa vs Juventus
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about one goal in Juventus’ favour. That fits their stronger win probability and the gap in their recent away defensive numbers.

Final Prediction

Genoa’s home advantage is the clearest way to unsettle the forecast. Juventus’ 1-1 draw at Cagliari, when they managed only four shots, shows how their attack can be limited away from home.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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