Serie A 2025-2026: Juventus vs Verona Prediction - 3 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Juventus

Home Team
82%
VS

Verona

Away Team
8%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 26.8
Expected Spread: +1.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 34 25 4 5 80 31 49 79
2 Napoli 34 21 6 7 52 33 19 69
3 Milan 34 19 10 5 48 27 21 67
4 Juventus 34 18 10 6 57 29 28 64
5 Como 34 17 10 7 59 28 31 61
6 Roma 34 19 4 11 48 29 19 61
7 Atalanta 34 14 12 8 47 32 15 54
8 Lazio 34 12 12 10 37 33 4 48
9 Bologna 34 14 6 14 42 41 1 48
10 Sassuolo 34 13 7 14 41 44 -3 46
11 Udinese 34 12 8 14 41 46 -5 44
12 Parma 34 10 12 12 25 40 -15 42
13 Torino 34 11 8 15 39 56 -17 41
14 Genoa 34 10 9 15 40 48 -8 39
15 Fiorentina 34 8 13 13 38 45 -7 37
16 Cagliari 34 9 9 16 36 49 -13 36
17 Lecce 34 7 8 19 22 46 -24 29
18 Cremonese 34 6 10 18 26 51 -25 28
19 Verona 34 3 10 21 23 56 -33 19
20 Pisa 34 2 12 20 24 61 -37 18

Recent Trends

Juventus D W W W D

  • Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 1)

Verona D L L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Juventus

xG (avg) 2.12
xGA (avg) 0.99
Clean Sheets 4

Verona

xG (avg) 1.19
xGA (avg) 1.51
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Juventus are clear favourites at home with an 82.0% chance of victory, a reflection of their top‑four status (4th with 64 points) against a Verona side stuck in 19th on just 19 points and fighting relegation. The game leans towards an attacking contest, with an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0%, suggesting goals in Turin rather than a tight, cagey affair.

Match Analysis

Juventus arrive in solid form: a disciplined 0-0 away at Milan followed a pair of wins over Bologna (2-0) and Atalanta (1-0). Those results underline a side that can manage games in different ways – from controlled defending at San Siro to clinical home efficiency against Bologna. Four clean sheets in their last five outings, conceding only 0.6 goals on average with 0.988 expected goals against, point to a defence that is largely in command. Going forward, 1.8 goals scored per match and 2.122 xG in that same span suggest Juve are creating plenty, even if the scorelines haven’t always exploded recently. Verona’s picture is far grimmer. They are winless in their last three: a 0-0 home draw with Lecce, followed by narrow defeats to Milan (0-1) and Torino (1-2). They’ve at least shown some attacking intent – 13 shots against Milan and 18 at Torino – but their average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over the last five matches underlines why they are deep in trouble. The xG numbers (1.192 for, 1.51 against) hint at a team that does create some chances but lacks the quality at both ends to consistently turn performances into points.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
Verona
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 60.0% probability, expecting this to be more open than some of Juventus’s recent scorelines. None of Juve’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (totals of 0, 2 and 1), but their attacking averages (1.8 scored, 2.122 xG) suggest they are capable of putting multiple goals past a fragile defence. Verona have seen only one of their last three go over 2.5 (a 1-2 loss at Torino), and with 1.8 goals conceded per game recently, their back line looks vulnerable to a more ruthless home side.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Juventus
Corners in last 5 matches
Verona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.29 total corners, matching a game where Juventus control territory but Verona still find moments to break forward. Juve’s last three matches produced 4, 7 and 15 total corners respectively, while Verona’s yielded 6, 7 and 9, numbers that fit well with the predicted corners range. With both teams showing they can rack up corners when chasing the game, especially Verona at Torino and Juventus at Atalanta, we should see enough attacking thrust from wide areas to reach that mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches
Verona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.83, in line with a match where Juventus set the tempo and Verona respond in bursts. Juve’s last three games saw combined shot counts of 18, 21 and 29, while Verona’s produced 18, 19 and 29, so the shots prediction sits comfortably in the middle of their recent ranges. That aligns with the xG data: Juventus generating over 2.0 xG and Verona around 1.19 xG on average, which typically requires a solid volume of attempts from both sides.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Juventus wins by X goals. Negative = Verona wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Juventus vs Verona with expected spread of +1.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Juventus vs Verona
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at +1.71 in favour of Juventus, meaning the expected spread has the home side winning by roughly two goals. Recent results support that margin: Juve are +3 on goal difference over their last three (3 scored, 0 conceded), while Verona sit at -2 (1 scored, 3 conceded). Coupled with Juventus’s 82.0% win probability and their far stronger offensive and defensive metrics, a comfortable home victory fits the underlying numbers.

Final Prediction

Juventus have the edge through their defensive solidity, superior chance creation and vastly stronger league position, all of which point towards a routine home win against a beleaguered Verona. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Juve turn their territorial dominance and xG advantage into goals against a Verona side that concedes too many chances to survive this level of pressure.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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