Serie A 2025-2026: Lazio vs Sassuolo Prediction - 9 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Lazio

Home Team
68%
VS

Sassuolo

Away Team
15%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Shots: 26.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 27 22 1 4 64 21 43 67
2 Milan 27 16 9 2 43 20 23 57
3 Napoli 27 16 5 6 41 28 13 53
4 Roma 27 16 3 8 37 19 18 51
5 Como 27 13 9 5 44 20 24 48
6 Juventus 27 13 8 6 46 28 18 47
7 Atalanta 27 12 9 6 37 24 13 45
8 Bologna 27 11 6 10 36 32 4 39
9 Sassuolo 27 11 5 11 34 36 -2 38
10 Udinese 27 10 5 12 31 39 -8 35
11 Lazio 27 8 10 9 26 27 -1 34
12 Parma 27 8 9 10 20 32 -12 33
13 Cagliari 27 7 9 11 29 36 -7 30
14 Torino 27 8 6 13 27 47 -20 30
15 Genoa 27 6 9 12 32 39 -7 27
16 Fiorentina 27 5 9 13 30 42 -12 24
17 Cremonese 27 5 9 13 21 38 -17 24
18 Lecce 27 6 6 15 18 36 -18 24
19 Pisa 27 1 12 14 20 44 -24 15
20 Verona 27 2 9 16 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Lazio L D L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 3 - 2)

Sassuolo W W W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lazio

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.44
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.98
# Clean Sheets: 1

Sassuolo

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.39
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.15
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lazio are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 68.0% probability of a home win against Sassuolo’s 15.0% chance, despite sitting slightly lower in the table (Lazio 11th on 34 points, Sassuolo 9th on 38). The model leans towards a tight, low‑scoring affair, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0% implied probability. A goalless outcome is firmly on the table as well, with “no both teams to score” rated at 50.0%.

Match Analysis

Lazio come into this one on a worrying run: two defeats and a draw in their last three, all without scoring (0-2 at Torino, 0-0 at Cagliari, 0-2 at home to Atalanta). The numbers paint a side that is creating something but not finishing: 1.44 expected goals on average over the last five games, yet only 1.0 actually scored, while conceding 2.2 per match. Defensively, an xG against of 1.976 suggests they are allowing good chances, and the single clean sheet in five matches underlines that fragility. Sassuolo, by contrast, arrive in Rome with momentum after three straight wins: 2-1 against Atalanta, 3-0 versus Verona, and 2-1 away at Udinese. They have been efficient rather than dominant, often losing the shot and corner count but winning the scoreboard. Their recent averages – 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded with 1.39 xG for and just 1.154 xG against – indicate a more balanced, compact side than earlier in the season, capable of managing games even without flooding the opposition box.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
The model sides with under 2.5, with only a 46.0% probability assigned to over 2.5 goals, which supports an under 2.5 prediction. Lazio’s last three matches have all finished under 2.5 (0-2, 0-0, 0-2), reflecting their struggle in front of goal and a cautious approach. Sassuolo’s last three have all gone over 2.5 (3, 3 and 3 total goals), but their underlying figures – 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded on 1.39 xG for and 1.154 xG against – suggest matches that can just as easily tighten up against a more conservative opponent like Lazio.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 26.75 expected total shots, this looks like a match with a decent volume of attempts but not necessarily end-to-end chaos, aligning with the low-scoring outlook in the shots prediction. Lazio’s recent shot counts (12, 10 and 18 taken; 13, 11 and 12 faced) show a team that can generate volume without converting, in line with their 1.44 xG but only 1.0 goals per game. Sassuolo’s last three (7, 8 and 10 shots taken; 26, 12 and 8 faced) suggest they are comfortable absorbing pressure, which should inflate Lazio’s attempts while keeping overall expected shots close to the forecast.

Final Prediction

Lazio’s home advantage, higher xG profile and greater territorial presence give them the edge, even if the table currently favours Sassuolo. The key factor to watch will be whether Lazio can finally turn their underlying attacking numbers into goals against a Sassuolo side that has been winning by being clinical rather than dominant.

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