Serie A 2026-2027: Milan vs Bologna Prediction - 28 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Milan

Home Team
66%
VS

Bologna

Away Team
15%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 46%
No Goal: 54%
Expected Corners: 8.7
Expected Shots: 23.2
Expected Spread: +0.9

Why the Model Leans Milan

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Milan
Attack +5.8 Milan
Chance creation (xG data) +5.8 Milan
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.4 Milan
Results & dominance +3.4 Milan

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 82% for Milan. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Milan defense +5.0 Under
Form & results +3.0 Over
Bologna attack & chance creation +2.6 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Milan attack & chance creation +1.9 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 8 7 1 0 23 10 13 22
2 Lazio 8 7 1 0 16 5 11 22
3 Roma 8 5 3 0 19 6 13 18
4 Milan 8 5 3 0 16 7 9 18
5 Como 8 5 2 1 14 7 7 17
6 Frosinone 8 4 2 2 17 13 4 14
7 Juventus 8 4 2 2 11 8 3 14
8 Torino 8 4 1 3 13 11 2 13
9 Cagliari 8 4 1 3 6 9 -3 13
10 Napoli 8 3 2 3 13 10 3 11
11 Atalanta 8 3 1 4 14 15 -1 10
12 Lecce 8 3 0 5 9 14 -5 9
13 Bologna 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
14 Sassuolo 8 2 2 4 12 16 -4 8
15 Monza 8 2 1 5 15 18 -3 7
16 Genoa 8 2 1 5 6 13 -7 7
17 Udinese 8 1 1 6 9 18 -9 4
18 Fiorentina 8 1 1 6 9 19 -10 4
19 Parma 8 1 1 6 5 15 -10 4
20 Venezia 8 1 0 7 6 17 -11 3

Recent Trends

Milan W W D W D

  • Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 2)

Bologna W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Milan

xG (avg) 2.77
xGA (avg) 0.89
Clean Sheets 2

Bologna

xG (avg) 1.30
xGA (avg) 0.97
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Milan are the clear favourites, with a 66% chance of winning, compared with 19% for a draw and 15% for Bologna. Under 2.5 goals is the slight lean at 52%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is a major part of the forecast, and Milan’s attacking numbers at home strengthen the case. They average 2.8 expected goals created and 0.9 expected goals conceded at home, suggesting they can generate chances while limiting Bologna’s opportunities. Milan have won their two latest matches, beating Udinese 2-0 after a 3-2 win over Atalanta, following a 1-1 draw with Sassuolo. Bologna also arrive after a win, beating Cagliari 2-0 away, but their previous match was a 3-1 defeat to Inter. Milan’s recent results and chance creation both point toward the hosts, though Bologna’s latest clean sheet offers some encouragement.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 goals has a 52% probability, with Milan’s defensive record the strongest reason for the lean. Bologna’s attack and chance creation also pull the forecast toward a lower total, although both teams have shown some scoring form.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Milan
Corners in last 5 matches
Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected total is 8.7 corners. Recent matches have varied, but Milan’s latest game featured nine corners, while Bologna’s latest had seven.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Milan
Shots in last 5 matches
Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 23 shots. Milan recorded 19 in their latest match, and the overall projection points to a reasonable volume of attempts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Milan wins by X goals. Negative = Bologna wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Milan vs Bologna with expected spread of +0.9
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Milan vs Bologna
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Milan are projected to finish about 0.9 goals ahead. That margin is consistent with their home advantage and stronger attacking and chance-creation figures.

Final Prediction

Bologna’s best route to upsetting the forecast is to make their latest defensive performance travel. If they can keep Milan from turning their home chance creation into goals, the visitors’ recent win at Cagliari gives them a platform to take something from the match.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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