Serie A 2026-2027: Milan vs Inter Prediction - 31 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Milan

Home Team
27%
VS

Inter

Away Team
49%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 8.4
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Inter

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Chance creation (xG data) +12.9 Inter
Home advantage +12.9 Milan
Defense +5.9 Inter
Attack +5.6 Inter
Results & dominance +2.5 Inter

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Inter. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Inter attack & chance creation +4.8 Over
Milan defense +4.2 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Inter defense +2.0 Under
Form & results +0.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 9 8 1 0 25 10 15 25
2 Lazio 9 8 1 0 22 7 15 25
3 Roma 9 6 3 0 23 8 15 21
4 Como 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20
5 Milan 9 5 3 1 18 11 7 18
6 Frosinone 9 5 2 2 22 14 8 17
7 Napoli 9 4 2 3 17 11 6 14
8 Juventus 9 4 2 3 11 10 1 14
9 Torino 9 4 1 4 14 14 0 13
10 Cagliari 9 4 1 4 8 13 -5 13
11 Bologna 9 3 2 4 12 12 0 11
12 Atalanta 9 3 2 4 16 17 -1 11
13 Genoa 9 3 1 5 8 13 -5 10
14 Lecce 9 3 0 6 10 19 -9 9
15 Sassuolo 9 2 2 5 14 22 -8 8
16 Monza 9 2 1 6 16 22 -6 7
17 Udinese 9 1 2 6 9 18 -9 5
18 Fiorentina 9 1 2 6 11 21 -10 5
19 Parma 9 1 2 6 5 15 -10 5
20 Venezia 9 1 0 8 6 19 -13 3

Recent Trends

Milan L W W D W

  • Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 3 - 0)

Inter W W W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Milan

xG (avg) 2.57
xGA (avg) 1.16
Clean Sheets 2

Inter

xG (avg) 3.10
xGA (avg) 1.47
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are favored to win at 49%, with Milan at 27% and a draw at 24%. The lean is toward over 2.5 goals, at 51%.

Match Analysis

Inter’s advantage rests chiefly on creating better chances and defending more effectively. Away from home, they have averaged 3.1 expected goals, well above their 2.0 goals scored, suggesting their finishing has not matched their opportunities. Milan’s home advantage matters, though: they average 2.5 goals at home and have created 2.6 expected goals there. Inter arrive on three straight wins, most recently beating Venezia 2-0 away, after a 2-1 win over Fiorentina and a 3-1 win over Bologna. Milan’s latest result was a 2-4 home loss to Bologna, which interrupted a run that included wins over Udinese and Atalanta. Inter’s recent consistency contrasts with Milan’s latest defensive lapse.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals has a narrow 51% probability. Inter’s attack and chance creation are the strongest reason for that lean, while Milan’s defending pulls the other way.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Milan
Corners in last 5 matches
Inter
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 8.4 corners. Inter’s recent matches have featured regular corner activity, including nine against Venezia, while Milan’s latest match had only five.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Milan
Shots in last 5 matches
Inter
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 25 shots. Inter’s 33 shots against Fiorentina show their capacity to generate volume, though Milan managed 19 in their win over Udinese.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Milan wins by X goals. Negative = Inter wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Milan vs Inter with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Milan vs Inter
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected margin is about 0.1 goal in Inter’s favour, a very narrow away lean consistent with their higher win probability.

Final Prediction

Milan’s ability to turn their strong home chance creation into goals could change the outlook. Inter have conceded only 0.75 goals per away match on average, so Milan will need to make those opportunities count.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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