Serie A 2026-2027: Monza vs Cagliari Prediction - 19 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Monza

Home Team
49%
VS

Cagliari

Away Team
25%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 28.5
Expected Spread: +0.4

Why the Model Leans Monza

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Monza
Defense +4.1 Monza
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.2 Cagliari
Chance creation (xG data) +2.4 Monza
Results & dominance +2.0 Monza

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 67% for Monza. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Cagliari attack & chance creation +8.6 Under
Cagliari defense +2.8 Over
Monza defense +2.4 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Monza attack & chance creation +1.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 6 5 1 0 18 8 10 16
2 Lazio 6 5 1 0 11 4 7 16
3 Roma 6 4 2 0 14 3 11 14
4 Cagliari 6 4 1 1 6 3 3 13
5 Milan 6 3 3 0 11 5 6 12
6 Juventus 6 3 2 1 9 5 4 11
7 Como 6 3 2 1 9 6 3 11
8 Napoli 6 3 1 2 10 6 4 10
9 Frosinone 6 3 1 2 9 7 2 10
10 Atalanta 6 3 0 3 8 8 0 9
11 Sassuolo 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
12 Torino 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
13 Lecce 6 2 0 4 6 12 -6 6
14 Bologna 6 1 2 3 5 7 -2 5
15 Udinese 6 1 1 4 9 13 -4 4
16 Monza 6 1 1 4 9 15 -6 4
17 Genoa 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
18 Parma 6 1 1 4 4 10 -6 4
19 Fiorentina 6 1 1 4 7 14 -7 4
20 Venezia 6 0 0 6 5 16 -11 0

Recent Trends

Monza L W L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 3)

Cagliari D W W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Monza

xG (avg) 1.75
xGA (avg) 1.65
Clean Sheets 0

Cagliari

xG (avg) 1.07
xGA (avg) 1.45
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Monza are the most likely winners at 49%, with a draw at 26% and a Cagliari win at 25%. The goals forecast leans narrowly Under 2.5, at 51%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest boost for Monza, alongside a modest advantage in chance creation. The defensive comparison also nudges their way, though recent evidence is less convincing: Monza have kept no clean sheets in their last five matches and have conceded 15 goals in six league games. Cagliari’s stronger team rating is a counterweight, and they have collected seven points from their last three matches, beating Atalanta 2-1 and Udinese 1-0 before drawing 1-1 with Juventus. Monza, meanwhile, lost 3-1 to Lazio in their latest match, following a 2-1 home win over Sassuolo.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Monza
Goals in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 is a narrow lean at 51%. Cagliari’s attack and chance creation are the strongest influence toward a lower total, while both teams’ defensive factors point the other way.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Monza
Corners in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.0 corners. Monza’s last three matches produced 13, 12 and 10 corners combined, offering a similar range to the projection.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Monza
Shots in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 29 shots. Monza’s latest two matches had 31 and 35 shots combined, suggesting the sides could generate a healthy volume of attempts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Monza wins by X goals. Negative = Cagliari wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Monza vs Cagliari with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Monza vs Cagliari
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Monza are projected to finish about 0.4 goals ahead. That modest margin fits a forecast that favors a home win but still gives the draw and Cagliari meaningful chances.

Final Prediction

Cagliari’s away defending could upset the forecast: they have conceded an average of just 0.3 goals away from home recently. If that resilience holds against Monza, who have not kept a clean sheet in five matches, the hosts may struggle to turn their home advantage into a win.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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