Serie A 2026-2027: Parma vs Udinese Prediction - 28 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Parma

Home Team
40%
VS

Udinese

Away Team
32%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 27.1
Expected Spread: +0.0

Why the Model Leans Parma

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Parma
Attack +6.7 Udinese
Results & dominance +4.8 Udinese
Defense +2.2 Parma
Chance creation (xG data) +0.6 Parma

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Parma. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Udinese attack & chance creation +5.0 Under
Parma attack & chance creation +3.2 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Udinese defense +2.3 Over
Form & results +0.9 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 8 7 1 0 23 10 13 22
2 Lazio 8 7 1 0 16 5 11 22
3 Roma 8 5 3 0 19 6 13 18
4 Milan 8 5 3 0 16 7 9 18
5 Como 8 5 2 1 14 7 7 17
6 Frosinone 8 4 2 2 17 13 4 14
7 Juventus 8 4 2 2 11 8 3 14
8 Torino 8 4 1 3 13 11 2 13
9 Cagliari 8 4 1 3 6 9 -3 13
10 Napoli 8 3 2 3 13 10 3 11
11 Atalanta 8 3 1 4 14 15 -1 10
12 Lecce 8 3 0 5 9 14 -5 9
13 Bologna 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
14 Sassuolo 8 2 2 4 12 16 -4 8
15 Monza 8 2 1 5 15 18 -3 7
16 Genoa 8 2 1 5 6 13 -7 7
17 Udinese 8 1 1 6 9 18 -9 4
18 Fiorentina 8 1 1 6 9 19 -10 4
19 Parma 8 1 1 6 5 15 -10 4
20 Venezia 8 1 0 7 6 17 -11 3

Recent Trends

Parma L L L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)

Udinese L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 3 - 5)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Parma

xG (avg) 0.94
xGA (avg) 1.39
Clean Sheets 0

Udinese

xG (avg) 0.96
xGA (avg) 2.66
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Parma are the narrowest favorites, with a 40% chance of winning, compared with 32% for Udinese and 29% for a draw. Under 2.5 goals is the slight lean at 53%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest point in Parma’s favour, while Udinese rate better for attack and recent results in the comparison. Parma have scored an average of 0.8 goals at home, and Udinese’s away scoring average is 2.3, though their away expected goals figure of 1.0 suggests they have scored more than their chances would indicate. Both sides arrive after three straight defeats. Parma’s latest was a 1-2 loss away to Lazio, following a 0-3 home defeat to Torino and a 0-3 loss away to Inter. Udinese most recently lost 0-2 at home to Milan, after a 0-3 defeat to Lecce and a 1-2 loss away to Torino. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in its last five matches.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 is favoured at 53%, with both teams’ chance creation and attacking output pulling the forecast in that direction. Udinese’s defensive record points the other way, and Parma have conceded in each of their last five matches.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Parma
Corners in last 5 matches
Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.5 corners. Parma’s recent games have varied, including eight corners for Torino in their latest home match and 11 corners in their away loss to Lazio, so the projection sits near a moderate match total.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Parma
Shots in last 5 matches
Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The sides are projected to produce 27 shots combined. Recent totals show scope for that volume, with 31 shots in Udinese’s match against Milan and 34 in Parma’s meeting with Torino.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Parma wins by X goals. Negative = Udinese wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Parma vs Udinese with expected spread of +0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Parma vs Udinese
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is virtually level, with a negligible 0.0-goal lean toward Parma. That fits the close win probabilities, despite Parma’s home advantage.

Final Prediction

Udinese’s away scoring average could upset the forecast if it is sustained, but its 0.96 away expected goals figure makes that recent return look difficult to repeat.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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