Serie A 2024-2025: Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction

Roma

Home Team
61%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
19%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Napoli 34 22 8 4 54 25 29 74
2 Inter 34 21 8 5 72 33 39 71
3 Atalanta 34 19 8 7 67 31 36 65
4 Juventus 34 16 14 4 51 31 20 62
5 Bologna 34 16 13 5 52 37 15 61
6 Roma 34 17 9 8 49 32 17 60
7 Lazio 34 17 9 8 57 45 12 60
8 Fiorentina 34 17 8 9 53 34 19 59
9 Milan 34 15 9 10 53 38 15 54
10 Torino 34 10 13 11 38 39 -1 43
11 Como 34 11 9 14 44 48 -4 42
12 Udinese 34 11 8 15 36 48 -12 41
13 Genoa 34 9 12 13 29 41 -12 39
14 Cagliari 34 8 9 17 35 49 -14 33
15 Verona 34 9 5 20 30 62 -32 32
16 Parma 34 6 14 14 40 53 -13 32
17 Lecce 34 6 9 19 24 56 -32 27
18 Venezia 34 4 13 17 27 48 -21 25
19 Empoli 34 4 13 17 27 54 -27 25
20 Monza 34 2 9 23 25 59 -34 15

Recent Trends

Roma ✅ ✅ ⚪ ⚪ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)

Fiorentina ✅ ✅ ⚪ ⚪ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Empoli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Roma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.60
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.81
# Clean Sheets: 3

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.40
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.56
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

For the upcoming clash between Roma and Fiorentina, the prediction heavily favors a victory for the home team, Roma, with a probability of 61.0%. There is a 19.0% chance of Fiorentina staging an upset, while a draw stands at 20.0%. The matchup is expected to be low-scoring, with a 44.0% probability of the game going under 2.5 goals. Currently, Roma sits in 6th place in the Serie A standings with 60 points, while Fiorentina is right behind them in 8th place with 59 points.

Match Analysis

Roma comes into this match on the back of a solid run of form. They secured a notable away victory against Inter with a 1-0 scoreline and followed it up with a home win over Verona by the same margin. Their last outing was a 1-1 draw against city rivals Lazio. This series of results reflects a strong defensive performance, as indicated by their three clean sheets in the last five matches. On the attacking front, Roma has averaged 1.8 goals per game over their recent fixtures, yet they maintain a prudent defense, conceding only 0.4 goals on average. Fiorentina, on the other hand, has shown resilience with two consecutive victories against Empoli and Cagliari, both ending 2-1. However, their goalless draw against Parma highlights some inconsistencies in their attack. Fiorentina has managed to score an average of 1.2 goals in their last five games, but their defense has been porous, conceding 1.6 goals on average. Despite this, Fiorentina has managed to keep two clean sheets in their recent matches.

Final Prediction

Roma's impressive defensive record and recent performances give them a substantial edge over Fiorentina. Their ability to maintain clean sheets and capitalize on scoring opportunities could be crucial in this contest. A key factor to watch will be Roma's defensive organization, which could stifle Fiorentina's attacking efforts and secure them the predicted win.