Serie A 2026-2027: Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Prediction - 2 Nov 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sassuolo

Home Team
33%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
40%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 64%
No Goal: 36%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 24.8
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Fiorentina

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Sassuolo
Defense +6.3 Fiorentina
Attack +5.8 Fiorentina
Chance creation (xG data) +5.2 Fiorentina
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.0 Sassuolo

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Fiorentina. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Sassuolo defense +5.9 Over
Fiorentina defense +2.9 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 9 8 1 0 25 10 15 25
2 Lazio 9 8 1 0 22 7 15 25
3 Roma 9 6 3 0 23 8 15 21
4 Como 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20
5 Milan 9 5 3 1 18 11 7 18
6 Frosinone 9 5 2 2 22 14 8 17
7 Napoli 9 4 2 3 17 11 6 14
8 Juventus 9 4 2 3 11 10 1 14
9 Torino 9 4 1 4 14 14 0 13
10 Cagliari 9 4 1 4 8 13 -5 13
11 Bologna 9 3 2 4 12 12 0 11
12 Atalanta 9 3 2 4 16 17 -1 11
13 Genoa 9 3 1 5 8 13 -5 10
14 Lecce 9 3 0 6 10 19 -9 9
15 Sassuolo 9 2 2 5 14 22 -8 8
16 Monza 9 2 1 6 16 22 -6 7
17 Udinese 9 1 2 6 9 18 -9 5
18 Fiorentina 9 1 2 6 11 21 -10 5
19 Parma 9 1 2 6 5 15 -10 5
20 Venezia 9 1 0 8 6 19 -13 3

Recent Trends

Sassuolo L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 6)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Frosinone (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Monza (Goals: 1 - 2)

Fiorentina D L L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sassuolo

xG (avg) 1.23
xGA (avg) 2.23
Clean Sheets 0

Fiorentina

xG (avg) 1.12
xGA (avg) 2.22
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Fiorentina are the likeliest winners at 40%, ahead of Sassuolo at 33%, with the draw at 27%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, at 61%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage gives Sassuolo a route into the match, but Fiorentina’s stronger attack and chance creation are important counterweights. Sassuolo have kept no clean sheets in their last five matches, while Fiorentina’s 1.5 goals per game away from home have exceeded their 1.1 expected goals, suggesting their finishing has outpaced the chances created. Sassuolo arrive after three straight defeats, most recently a 2-6 home loss to Lazio, following a 0-2 defeat at Como and a 2-4 loss at Frosinone. Fiorentina’s latest result was a 2-2 draw with Atalanta, after losses of 1-2 at Inter and 1-3 to Como.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 61%. Both defences support that view: Sassuolo’s defensive record is a particular concern, and Fiorentina’s defence also points toward an open game.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Corners in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.2 corners. Recent totals show room for variation, from three in Sassuolo’s latest home match to ten in Fiorentina’s game against Atalanta.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 25 shots in total. Recent games have produced varied volumes, including 25 in Sassuolo’s match with Lazio and 35 in Fiorentina’s meeting with Como.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sassuolo wins by X goals. Negative = Fiorentina wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is almost level, about 0.1 goals in Sassuolo’s favour. That narrow margin sits alongside Fiorentina’s higher chance of winning outright.

Final Prediction

Sassuolo’s home advantage could flip the forecast if it translates into sustained pressure. Fiorentina have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, leaving an opening for the hosts despite their recent run of defeats.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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